Carmine St & 6 Ave

58adfd13-6ece-896b-a754-133c46c311b8 · temporary removal

Accepted · confidence MediumModel: mr_8a9483

Distance moved

0 m

Capacity change

63 → 63

Pre-window trips

153,306

Match confidence

95%

Pre 2021-09-30 20:00 EDT → 2022-09-29 20:00 EDT

Post 2022-12-31 20:00 EDT → 2023-12-30 20:00 EDT

Before (2021-10-01 – 2022-09-30)

After (2023-01-01 – 2023-12-31)

Neighbor redistribution

Net redistribution ≈ -244 trips

Neighbor	Distance	Observed post	Model pred.	Naive baseline	Residual (model)	Residual (naive)
W 4 St & 7 Ave S yaovyk3rw6jq	409 m	321.8	421.0	376.9	+99.2	+55.1
Barrow St & Hudson St pdv5pa2y5zgl	415 m	206.95	300.2	230.0	+93.3	+23.1
7 Ave S & Bleecker St mevjpfvewpkl	232 m	284.74	215.3	567.6	-69.4	+282.8
MacDougal St & Washington Sq hc6kb4xhblfz	370 m	190.84	223.1	200.6	+32.2	+9.8
MacDougal St & Prince St bx5rdckt6pdx	372 m	249.18	272.1	228.0	+22.9	-21.2
Sullivan St & Washington Sq vk2m5prigh45	261 m	272.75	294.3	260.5	+21.6	-12.2
LaGuardia Pl & W 3 St 2gz6p2d4bles	367 m	271.72	292.5	263.3	+20.8	-8.5
King St & Varick St efn5rg5pqdnm	387 m	176.61	192.2	159.0	+15.6	-17.6
Washington Pl & 6 Ave o2aqpq2ejash	260 m	282.3	287.4	247.6	+5.1	-34.7
Thompson St & Bleecker St njblbb353n52	303 m	272.99	276.1	240.7	+3.2	-32.3

Sources

Pre & post trip data: Citi Bike tripdata S3 bucket
Station identity reconciliation: nyc.citibike_simulator_stations_master (canonical & legacy IDs)
Model prediction table: nyc.citibike_simulator_relocation_neighbor_predictions (model_run mr_8a9483)

Detected from ingest run: #94

Download event CSV How the model is evaluated

Methodology and known gaps

This tool is a Concourse research artifact. Not a permit or approval.

What this tool does

Estimates how relocating or resizing a Citi Bike station would affect ridership and rebalancing across a small neighborhood of stations, using public GBFS and S3 trip data.

What this tool does not do

This is not a NYC DOT approval, a Lyft operations tool, or a rebalancing dispatcher. It cannot see rebalancing truck routes, suppressed demand, or pricing history.

Four public-data gaps

Rebalancing truck logs are internal to Lyft.
The product infers rebalancing burden from inventory dynamics, not from observed truck routes. Rebalancing truck movements are not observed and would attenuate these effects in practice.
Suppressed demand (app searches without a trip) is internal to Lyft.
App searches that do not result in a completed trip are not in the public data. Suppressed demand is not observed here.
2019-05 to 2023-06 station-status archive gap.
No public station-status archive covers 2019-05 to 2023-06. Empty/full risk is trained on the OpenBus 2015-2019 window and live GBFS polling from ingest go-live forward. No continuity claim is made across the gap.
Pricing and promotions history is unobserved.
Pricing and promotions history is not observed. It is a confounder that may explain some observed demand shifts.