5 Ave & E 78 St

6b4c4afe-4cbb-8adf-a0b0-f79c6bc56096 · relocation

Accepted · confidence MediumModel: mr_8a9483

Distance moved

65 m

Capacity change

? → 47

Pre-window trips

84,336

Match confidence

99%

Pre 2015-12-31 20:00 EDT → 2016-12-30 20:00 EDT

Post 2017-01-30 20:00 EDT → 2017-12-30 20:00 EDT

Before (2016-01-01 – 2016-12-31)

After (2017-01-31 – 2017-12-31)

Neighbor redistribution

Net redistribution ≈ -192 trips

Neighbor	Distance	Observed post	Model pred.	Naive baseline	Residual (model)	Residual (naive)
E 84 St & Park Ave h7xxuvbwzcca	556 m	91.2	190.5	190.5	+99.3	+99.3
5 Ave & E 78 St 63khhyrmzljj · moved station	65 m	185.07	273.1	0.0	+88.1	-185.1
Madison Ave & E 82 St utrvirdvjcor	305 m	92.36	20.2	293.4	-72.1	+201.0
E 77 St & 3 Ave bmeugkq3nk46	608 m	0	70.7	70.7	+70.7	+70.7
E 76 St & 3 Ave 5fhbdqmjwxfk	686 m	69.21	10.7	10.7	-58.5	-58.5
E 76 St & Park Ave nqc3zhucnj74	369 m	82.56	32.8	32.8	-49.7	-49.7
E 77 St & Park Ave xpoclpfii5b2	324 m	0	39.7	39.7	+39.7	+39.7
5 Ave & E 73 St gbwe4qfhtnx2	510 m	264.19	289.2	289.2	+25.0	+25.0
E 72 St & Park Ave jh74wit4ao4p	628 m	88.95	111.7	111.7	+22.8	+22.8
E 81 St & Park Ave dmjsgcdnpgpo	411 m	34.19	52.9	52.9	+18.7	+18.7
E 81 St & 3 Ave zhhu4gmj736y	613 m	90.58	98.5	98.5	+8.0	+8.0

Sources

Pre & post trip data: Citi Bike tripdata S3 bucket
Station identity reconciliation: nyc.citibike_simulator_stations_master (canonical & legacy IDs)
Model prediction table: nyc.citibike_simulator_relocation_neighbor_predictions (model_run mr_8a9483)

Detected from ingest run: #94

Download event CSV How the model is evaluated

Methodology and known gaps

This tool is a Concourse research artifact. Not a permit or approval.

What this tool does

Estimates how relocating or resizing a Citi Bike station would affect ridership and rebalancing across a small neighborhood of stations, using public GBFS and S3 trip data.

What this tool does not do

This is not a NYC DOT approval, a Lyft operations tool, or a rebalancing dispatcher. It cannot see rebalancing truck routes, suppressed demand, or pricing history.

Four public-data gaps

Rebalancing truck logs are internal to Lyft.
The product infers rebalancing burden from inventory dynamics, not from observed truck routes. Rebalancing truck movements are not observed and would attenuate these effects in practice.
Suppressed demand (app searches without a trip) is internal to Lyft.
App searches that do not result in a completed trip are not in the public data. Suppressed demand is not observed here.
2019-05 to 2023-06 station-status archive gap.
No public station-status archive covers 2019-05 to 2023-06. Empty/full risk is trained on the OpenBus 2015-2019 window and live GBFS polling from ingest go-live forward. No continuity claim is made across the gap.
Pricing and promotions history is unobserved.
Pricing and promotions history is not observed. It is a confounder that may explain some observed demand shifts.