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Delay and cost-overrun probabilities for NYC DDC-managed capital projects using public sources plus Checkbook NYC. Concourse research artifact. Not an official DDC risk score or vendor rating. Model outputs are correlational, not causal.
| FMS ID | Project | Boro | Phase | Budget | Delay risk | Overrun risk | Combined | Top contributor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEX002275 | Reconstruction of Grand Concourse Phase 5, Bronx, HWXP136D | Bronx | Construction | $2.0M | Critical· 93% | High· 70% | 0.813 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| HL82WASHT | WASHINGTON HEIGHTS HEALTH CENTER FACADE RENOVATION | Manhattan | (Cancelled) | $2.9M | Critical· 98% | Moderate· 53% | 0.759 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWCB26KR | Curb Reconstruction - Brooklyn and Staten Island | Citywide | Construction Procurement | $4.3M | Critical· 82% | High· 57% | 0.692 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| PV788-FAC | 122C - 122 CC Facade Reconstruction | Manhattan | Construction Procurement | $6.9M | Critical· 97% | Moderate· 39% | 0.678 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| PW357STM2 | 253 BROADWAY - RECONSTRUCT STEAM STATION | Manhattan | (Pre-Design) | $6.1M | Critical· 83% | Moderate· 52% | 0.676 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HH112KELC | 282 EAST 3RD STREET - ELECTRICAL UPGRADE | Manhattan | Construction | $12.9M | Critical· 98% | Moderate· 36% | 0.671 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| LNCA10AGL | AGUILAR - Facade Restoration | Manhattan | Construction | $3.9M | Critical· 100% | Moderate· 33% | 0.663 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HD-161DPL | GATEWAY SITE IMPROVEMENTS | Brooklyn | Construction | $18.6M | Critical· 96% | Moderate· 37% | 0.663 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PV075RENO | Brooklyn Music School - Playhouse Renovation | Brooklyn | (Cancelled) | $7.3M | High· 78% | Moderate· 54% | 0.658 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWXS711 | RECONSTRUCTION OF STEP STREET AT DAVIDSON AVE (SEX002272) | Bronx | Construction Procurement | $13.3M | Critical· 96% | Moderate· 35% | 0.652 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWXP2007 | E177TH ST/DEVOE AVE BT SHERIDAN (I-895) /E.TREMONT HED-560 | Bronx | Construction | $42.2M | Critical· 99% | Moderate· 31% | 0.651 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HWP24KRC | Non-Standard Ped Ramps - Brooklyn and Staten Island | Citywide | Design | $20.0M | Critical· 96% | Moderate· 34% | 0.647 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| CO272DW2 | 45 MONROE PL- DRIVEWAY/PARKING LOT RECONSTRUCTION | Brooklyn | Construction Procurement | $3.6M | Critical· 99% | Low· 25% | 0.619 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| LNCL15CAS | CASTLE HILL: Partial Interior Renovation | Bronx | Construction | $18.3M | Critical· 100% | Low· 24% | 0.617 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| LBC22SAIF | STONE AVENUE INFRASTRUCTURE UPGRADE | Brooklyn | Design | $10.1M | Critical· 99% | Low· 24% | 0.615 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| LN18MRBOI | Morrisania - Boiler Replacement | Bronx | (Cancelled) | $447.0K | Critical· 96% | Low· 26% | 0.614 | Total budget has re-baselined upward across the last three reporting periods. |
| LBCENPH2 | CENTRAL RENOVATION - PHASE 2A | Brooklyn | (Construction) | $56.4M | Critical· 89% | Moderate· 34% | 0.612 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| PO79ROD | NEW FIREARMS TRAINING FACILITY | Bronx | Construction | $316.9M | Critical· 98% | Low· 24% | 0.610 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| HWP23KQC | Non-Standard Ped Ramps - Brooklyn and Queens | Citywide | Design | $18.0M | Critical· 89% | Moderate· 32% | 0.605 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| S136-436 | Brooklyn 6 Garage Rehabilitation | Brooklyn | (Cancelled) | $3.8M | Critical· 100% | Low· 21% | 0.603 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SANDRDHK | Red Hook HMGP, SEK002390 | Brooklyn | Construction | $229.0M | Critical· 98% | Low· 22% | 0.602 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| PW195SW2 | 80 CENTRE ST. - SIDEWALK REHABILITATION | Manhattan | (Cancelled) | $17.2M | Critical· 100% | Low· 20% | 0.598 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PV028-ISS | Issue Project Room - interior fitout | Brooklyn | Construction Procurement | $13.0M | Critical· 99% | Low· 20% | 0.594 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| SECUREDET | SECURE DETENTION FACILITIES | Citywide | (Design) | $23.4M | Critical· 89% | Low· 29% | 0.591 | Total budget has re-baselined upward across the last three reporting periods. |
| HH112CTFS | CLARKE THOMAS FIRE SAFETY | Manhattan | Construction Procurement | $3.1M | Critical· 92% | Low· 26% | 0.588 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWP23KRC | Non-Standard Ped Ramps - Brooklyn and Staten Island | Citywide | Design | $17.7M | Critical· 94% | Low· 23% | 0.585 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| PV241BOIL | MCNY - Boiler Replacement | Manhattan | (Initiation) | $5.6M | Critical· 92% | Low· 25% | 0.585 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HWMNYPL | New York Public Library Pedestrian Improvements | Manhattan | Design | $10.4M | Critical· 97% | Low· 19% | 0.581 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWK876 | RECONSTRUCTION OF WYCKOFF AVENUE, BROOKLYN, SEK002351 | Brooklyn | Design | $58.4M | Critical· 87% | Low· 28% | 0.574 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| PV656-EXT | GRHS - Onderdonk House Exterior Restoration | Queens | Construction | $2.1M | Critical· 98% | Low· 16% | 0.571 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| HWP21KQC | Non-Standard Installs - Brooklyn and Queens | Citywide | Design | $8.7M | Critical· 99% | Low· 15% | 0.571 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| CO293CTR | 851 GRAND CONCOURSE -COOLING TOWER REPLACEMENT | Bronx | (Initiation) | $10.4M | Critical· 95% | Low· 19% | 0.570 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| CO277FA | 25-10 COURT HOUSE SQ.- FIRE ALARM SYSTEM | Queens | Construction Procurement | $14.4M | Critical· 89% | Low· 24% | 0.567 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| PV175CLOV | SIZ - Staten Island Zoo Clove Road Restoration | Staten Island | Design | $19.1M | Critical· 100% | Low· 13% | 0.564 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| LBM17ARBR | ARLINGTON BRANCH RENOVATION | Brooklyn | Construction | $15.8M | Critical· 92% | Low· 20% | 0.564 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| PO79SHOPR | SERVICE SHOP #6 ROOF RENOVATION | Brooklyn | Construction Procurement | $12.7M | Critical· 96% | Low· 17% | 0.564 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| LN18ALELE | ALLERTON - Elevator Replacement - 3 stop | Bronx | Construction Procurement | $3.1M | Critical· 95% | Low· 18% | 0.564 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWR1140A | ARTHUR KILL ROAD (PHASE I) - CLARKE AVE, RICHMOD AV, RED-366 | Staten Island | Construction | $89.4M | Critical· 98% | Low· 15% | 0.563 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| E17-0001 | DCAS - LOUIS J LEFKOWITZ - ENERGY EFFICIENCY UPGRADE | Manhattan | Construction | $14.4M | Critical· 96% | Low· 16% | 0.561 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| LN18HGHVA | HAMILTON GRANGE - HVAC System Replacement | Manhattan | Design | $7.6M | Critical· 99% | Low· 13% | 0.559 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWM12AVE | 12th Avenue Accessibility Improvements, SEN002183, PS-348 | Manhattan | Construction Procurement | $10.3M | Critical· 99% | Low· 13% | 0.557 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| CO299EXT2 | 89-17 SUTPHIN BLVD.- PLAZA/SIDEWALK RECONSTRUCTION | Queens | Construction Procurement | $12.1M | Critical· 85% | Low· 26% | 0.553 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| CMERECORD | OCME - Records Room Reconstruction at 421 East 26th St, Manh | Manhattan | Construction Procurement | $7.9M | Critical· 99% | Low· 11% | 0.552 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| CO278EXT2 | 360 ADAMS ST. - EXTERIOR & ROOF | Brooklyn | Construction | $32.6M | Critical· 99% | Low· 11% | 0.552 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| SANDLESEC | LOWER EAST SIDE ECOLOGY CENER (LESEC) NEW PROGRAMMING SPACE | Citywide | (Pending) | $6.3M | Critical· 81% | Low· 29% | 0.550 | Total budget has re-baselined upward across the last three reporting periods. |
| CO295EV | 1118 GRAND CONCOURSE - ELEVATORS | Bronx | Construction Procurement | $22.3M | Critical· 96% | Low· 13% | 0.548 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| LQQ122-RG | REGO PARK LIBRARY - REPLACEMENT FACILITY | Queens | Construction | $45.7M | Critical· 100% | Low· 10% | 0.547 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| PV502-SDW | JCAL - JPAC Outdoor Performance Space & Sidewals | Queens | Construction | $5.9M | Critical· 99% | Low· 10% | 0.547 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| LBC22KBIF | KINGS BAY INFRASTRUCTURE UPGRADE | Brooklyn | Design | $10.9M | Critical· 97% | Low· 13% | 0.546 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HWHARPER | Reconstruction of Harper Street Asphalt Plant - Construction | Queens | Construction | $137.7M | Critical· 100% | Low· 9% | 0.546 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |