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Delay and cost-overrun probabilities for NYC DDC-managed capital projects using public sources plus Checkbook NYC. Concourse research artifact. Not an official DDC risk score or vendor rating. Model outputs are correlational, not causal.
| FMS ID | Project | Boro | Phase | Budget | Delay risk | Overrun risk | Combined | Top contributor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1YANK15A | Bronx Children's Museum Fitout | Bronx | (Completed) | $16.7M | Critical· 89% | Low· 0% | 0.443 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| LNEA08MHV | MANHATTAN (Northern) - HVAC @ Four Branch Libraries | Manhattan | Construction | $8.0M | Critical· 88% | Low· 1% | 0.443 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SEQ200578 | SEQ - Storm & San Sewers, WM Work in Foch Blvd (HWQ200578) | Queens | (Completed) | $25.0M | Critical· 86% | Low· 2% | 0.442 | Borough-specific historical patterns contribute to this project's estimated risk. |
| HWP23MC2 | Non-Standard Ped Ramps - Manhattan | Manhattan | Design | $18.3M | High· 74% | Low· 15% | 0.442 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWPR19R | Pedestrian Ramp Rehabilitation - Staten Island | Staten Island | (Pending) | $16.0M | Critical· 88% | Low· 0% | 0.442 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWQ100SBB | Woodhaven Blvd SBS Phase B (QED1040B) | Queens | Design | $56.9M | Critical· 83% | Low· 5% | 0.441 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| LNMNA08LS | MANHATTAN - Life Safety Projects @ 17 Branch Libraries | Manhattan | Close-out | $7.4M | Critical· 88% | Low· 0% | 0.441 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWM1688 | Harlem Multi-Site | Manhattan | Design | $22.1M | Critical· 87% | Low· 1% | 0.441 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SER200258 | Sanitary and Storm Sewer in West Castor Place between Alvers | Staten Island | Construction | $22.8M | Critical· 88% | Low· 0% | 0.441 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWS2020Q1 | Prior Notice Sidewalks- Queens | Queens | Close-out | $8.3M | Critical· 87% | Low· 1% | 0.441 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SEQ200475 | 112 AVE &113 AVE - FRANCIS LEWIS BLVD AND COLFAX ST | Queens | (Completed) | $9.8M | Critical· 88% | Low· 0% | 0.440 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWP19KQTA | CITYWIDE COMPLEX PED RAMPS (TA) - BROOKLYN AND QUEENS | Citywide | Close-out | $16.8M | Critical· 88% | Low· 0% | 0.440 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| RED-386 | Water Main replacement, South & Arlington Aves, SI | Staten Island | Close-out | $10.5M | Critical· 85% | Low· 3% | 0.439 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SEQ200524 | Storm & Sanitary Sewers in B. 21st Street, Queens | Queens | (Completed) | $19.5M | Critical· 88% | Low· 0% | 0.438 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SER002237 | Sanitary and Storm Sewer in Manee Avenue | Staten Island | (Cancelled) | $4.1M | Critical· 87% | Low· 1% | 0.438 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| MED-598B | TRUNK WM IN W 30 ST - 9 AV TO 10 AV (SHAFT 26B) - PHASE B | Manhattan | (Completed) | $64.0M | Critical· 87% | Low· 0% | 0.438 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| MED674 | Water Main and trunk main installin Broadway MN | Manhattan | (Cancelled) | $13.8M | Critical· 81% | Low· 6% | 0.438 | This project has been re-baselined multiple times across its public snapshots, which historically correlates with additional slippage. |
| BEDA-003 | Accelerated Distribution WM replcmnt & sewer rehab- BKLYN | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $32.7M | Critical· 87% | Low· 0% | 0.438 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| PV040ELEV | FTH - Flushing Town Hall Elevator Replacement | Queens | (Completed) | $1.7M | Critical· 87% | Low· 1% | 0.438 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HL82JAMCX | REHAB OF JAMAICA HEALTH CENTER ANNEX | Queens | (Completed) | $15.5M | Critical· 87% | Low· 0% | 0.437 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| BED-827 | Regulator Chamber Roof Replacements | Citywide | (Completed) | $3.1M | Critical· 86% | Low· 1% | 0.437 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWS2020R | Prior Notice Sidewalks- Staten Island | Staten Island | (Pending) | $4.9M | Critical· 87% | Low· 1% | 0.437 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| GKCI05-2A | GI- CONS OF ROW GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE IN CI-005 PHASE 2A | Brooklyn | Close-out | $28.7M | Critical· 87% | Low· 0% | 0.437 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PW348-83 | FUEL TANK REPLACEMENT | Citywide | Construction | $26.0M | Critical· 86% | Low· 1% | 0.437 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| PO79GENER | GENERATOR REPLACEMENT AT VARIOUS PRECINCTS | Citywide | (Pending) | $4.9M | Critical· 87% | Low· 0% | 0.436 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SANDBHFW | Sandy: Bellevue Flood Wall | Manhattan | Design | $90.0M | Critical· 86% | Low· 1% | 0.436 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HH112THFA | 8 EAST THIRD ST SHELTER FIRE SAFETY | Manhattan | (Cancelled) | $1.6M | Critical· 85% | Low· 2% | 0.435 | Total budget has re-baselined upward across the last three reporting periods. |
| HED-560 | RECON WM IN WEST FARMS SQUARE (HWXP2007) | Bronx | Construction | $14.9M | Critical· 81% | Low· 6% | 0.434 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWXP136C | Grand Concourse Phase 4 (SEX002268) | Bronx | (Completed) | $81.9M | Critical· 86% | Low· 0% | 0.434 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| LBC15MPHC | Mapleton Boiler & BMS | Brooklyn | (Cancelled) | $167.8K | Critical· 86% | Low· 0% | 0.433 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| LNXEA08BA | BAYCHESTER: HVAC | Bronx | (Cancelled) | $1.6M | Critical· 81% | Low· 6% | 0.433 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HH115UNFA | UNIVERSITY FAMILY RESIDENCE - FIRE ALARM SYSTEM UPGRADE | Bronx | (Completed) | $1.6M | Critical· 84% | Low· 2% | 0.433 | Total budget has re-baselined upward across the last three reporting periods. |
| LNLCGAGLR | Aguilar Branch Interior Renovation - LCG | Manhattan | (Construction) | $4.4M | High· 71% | Low· 16% | 0.432 | Budget has held close to its original value across the project's public history. |
| SANDSTPCP | HURRICANE SANDY DAMAGE CONEY ISLAND STEEPLECHASE PIER | Citywide | (Completed) | $13.3M | Critical· 86% | Low· 0% | 0.432 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SANDY4-30 | Tide Gate - FEMA 406 In-Kind, HMP & 428 Conduit HBPED800Q | Queens | Construction | $1.7M | Critical· 84% | Low· 2% | 0.432 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PW322X7 | 345 ADAMS ST. - LL 11 CYCLE 7 FACADE REPAIRS | Brooklyn | (Cancelled) | $1.2M | Critical· 85% | Low· 1% | 0.431 | Budget has held close to its original value across the project's public history. |
| RWX023 | Concourse Village West Retaining Wall and Str Recon, HED598 | Bronx | Design | $18.4M | Critical· 82% | Low· 4% | 0.431 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| CO299FIRE | 89-17 SUTPHIN BLVD - FIRE ALARM DESIGN & REPLACEMENT | Queens | Construction | $26.2M | High· 78% | Low· 8% | 0.431 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| LBM17NUOH | New Utrecht Overhaul | Brooklyn | Design | $26.4M | Critical· 81% | Low· 5% | 0.431 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWPR19M | Pedestrian Ramp Rehabilitation - Manhattan | Manhattan | (Pending) | $13.8M | Critical· 86% | Low· 0% | 0.431 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| LQBTRENOV | BAY TERRACE: Branch Renovation and Expansion | Queens | (Pass-Through Fund) | $3.4M | Critical· 84% | Low· 2% | 0.431 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWK2048A | Jamaica Bay Greenway - Marine Park Connector & Flatbush Ave | Brooklyn | Design | $34.9M | Critical· 85% | Low· 1% | 0.431 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| HWPR24MQ | Simple Upgrades Ped Ramps- Manhattan and Queens | Citywide | Construction | $25.4M | High· 71% | Low· 15% | 0.431 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWMP2019 | RECONSTRUCTION OF EAST HOUSTON STREET (MED-604) | Manhattan | (Completed) | $39.9M | Critical· 86% | Low· 0% | 0.430 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| MIBBNC04A | BMP NC 6 and 15 storm & sanitary sewer installation | Staten Island | Close-out | $27.0M | Critical· 86% | Low· 0% | 0.430 | Budget has held close to its original value across the project's public history. |
| SE-825 | SEQ - Laurelton Area - Part 1, Phase C | Queens | (Pending) | $112.9M | Critical· 85% | Low· 1% | 0.430 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| LNCA12EPH | EPIPHANY - FACADE RESTORATION | Manhattan | (Cancelled) | $2.6M | Critical· 85% | Low· 1% | 0.429 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWX414 | Lower Grand Concourse Reconstruction | Bronx | Design | $121.2M | Critical· 85% | Low· 0% | 0.429 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| HH112WLFA | WILLOW AVE FIRE SAFETY | Bronx | (Cancelled) | $535.1K | Critical· 83% | Low· 3% | 0.429 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| SEQ002488 | SAN SEWERS IN DANIELS ST, QNS | Queens | (Pending) | $3.8M | Critical· 86% | Low· 0% | 0.429 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |