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Delay and cost-overrun probabilities for NYC DDC-managed capital projects using public sources plus Checkbook NYC. Concourse research artifact. Not an official DDC risk score or vendor rating. Model outputs are correlational, not causal.
| FMS ID | Project | Boro | Phase | Budget | Delay risk | Overrun risk | Combined | Top contributor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SE-734 | SE-734 SAN SEWER IN RICHARD AVE, SI | Staten Island | (Completed) | $22.2M | Critical· 86% | Low· 0% | 0.429 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| QED-1051 | Water Main Replacement in Maspeth Avenue | Queens | (Completed) | $8.1M | Critical· 85% | Low· 1% | 0.428 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PV520HIST | WKS - Weeksville Restoration of Hunterfly Houses | Brooklyn | Close-out | $6.0M | Critical· 84% | Low· 2% | 0.427 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWX006-01 | Henwood Place Step Street | Bronx | Construction Procurement | $19.2M | High· 79% | Low· 6% | 0.427 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| CT2-INTER | CITY TUNNEL #2, REPLACE GUARD VALVES @ 16A | Citywide | Construction | $15.4M | Critical· 85% | Low· 0% | 0.427 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SEK002386 | Replace combined sewer & WM work,Park Pl & Underhill Ave, BK | Brooklyn | Close-out | $20.4M | Critical· 85% | Low· 1% | 0.427 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWPR21Q1 | Rehabilitation of Standard Ped Ramps - Queens | Queens | (Completed) | $18.9M | Critical· 85% | Low· 0% | 0.427 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| LN18CDSGN | — | — | Close-out | $6.3M | Critical· 84% | Low· 1% | 0.427 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| P-1STARLP | BRONX RIVER GREENWAY: STARLIGHT PARK PHASE II, STAGE 2, BX | Bronx | (Completed) | $47.7M | Critical· 84% | Low· 2% | 0.426 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWMWTCA6A | RECONSTRUCTION OF BROADWAY, ETC | Manhattan | (Completed) | $35.7M | Critical· 85% | Low· 0% | 0.426 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWS2020K2 | Prior Notice Sidewalks- Brooklyn | Brooklyn | Construction | $7.5M | Critical· 85% | Low· 0% | 0.426 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HH112AAFS | ATLANTIC ARMORY FIRE SAFETY | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $551.7K | Critical· 84% | Low· 1% | 0.425 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| PO79MOU1 | MOUNTED UNIT RENOVATION | Manhattan | (Completed) | $339.0K | Critical· 85% | Low· 0% | 0.425 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| QED1061 | Court Square Pedestrian Improvements, QNS DOT HWQ788CS | Queens | Design | $7.9M | High· 80% | Low· 5% | 0.424 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| LQQ122EE2 | EAST ELMHURST - Expansion | Queens | (Pending) | $11.4M | Critical· 84% | Low· 0% | 0.423 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SEK20072 | Rplcmnt of Sanitary & Storm Sewers & WM on Homecrest Ave BK | Brooklyn | (Initiation) | $8.4M | Critical· 81% | Low· 4% | 0.423 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| QED-1030 | Water Main & Sewer Work, Beach Channel Drive Area (SANDHW11) | Queens | Design | $9.3M | Critical· 84% | Low· 0% | 0.423 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SEK20056 | STORM SEWERS-GATEWAY ESTATES - PHASE C (HD-161C) | Brooklyn | (Cancelled) | $12.0M | Critical· 84% | Low· 0% | 0.423 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| GKOH15-02 | GI - GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE IN OH-015 GRAVESEND BAY CSO PH 2 | Brooklyn | Construction | $51.7M | Critical· 84% | Low· 0% | 0.422 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PWQMAHVAC | MASPETH TOWN HALL : HVAC UPGRADE | Queens | Construction Procurement | $5.6M | Critical· 83% | Low· 1% | 0.422 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWPR22QX | Rehabilitation of Standard Ped Ramps - Queens & Bronx | Citywide | (Completed) | $19.6M | Critical· 84% | Low· 0% | 0.421 | Budget has held close to its original value across the project's public history. |
| LNCA13ECH | EASTCHESTER: HVAC Replacement | Bronx | (Completed) | $2.2M | Critical· 83% | Low· 1% | 0.421 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| MED-610 | TRUNK MAIN CONNECTION TO SHAFT 27B | Manhattan | (Cancelled) | $29.1M | High· 79% | Low· 5% | 0.420 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| SEQ200613 | Storm SE on Poppenhusen Av btw College Pl & 115 St, QNS | Queens | (Initiation) | $19.3M | High· 78% | Low· 6% | 0.419 | Total budget has re-baselined upward across the last three reporting periods. |
| ACEDCA212 | DCLA - Met - Special Exhibition Lighting Improvement | Manhattan | (Pending) | $743.0K | Critical· 82% | Low· 2% | 0.419 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SEX002271 | Upgrade combined sewer Franklin ave- other Locs HWTRQX1 | Citywide | Close-out | $5.1M | High· 80% | Low· 4% | 0.419 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SER200272 | Strm and san.sewer exts and replacements, Dixon Ave. S.I | Staten Island | (Completed) | $10.3M | Critical· 84% | Low· 0% | 0.418 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| RED-366 | WM WORK ARTHUR KILL RD BTW RICHMOND & ABINGTON AVE HWR1140A | Staten Island | Construction | $44.6M | High· 73% | Low· 10% | 0.418 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| SE-860 | Combined Swr Replac & WM work 71st, QNS | Queens | Design | $128.4M | High· 76% | Low· 8% | 0.418 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HWP2019S | Citywide Simple Pedestrian Ramps | Citywide | (Completed) | $6.2M | Critical· 83% | Low· 0% | 0.416 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| QED-1023B | Distr & Trunk WM Replacement Cypress Ave, Queens (Joint Bid) | Queens | (Completed) | $56.1M | Critical· 83% | Low· 0% | 0.415 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWS2016K1 | Prior Notice Sidewalks - Brooklyn | Brooklyn | (Pending) | $29.9M | Critical· 83% | Low· 0% | 0.415 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWQ1206 | Reconstruction of 108th Avenue, South Jamaica_SEQ200605 | Queens | Design | $12.7M | High· 80% | Low· 3% | 0.415 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| SELCDDC09 | SEWER LINING CONTRACT, CITYWIDE | Citywide | (Completed) | $7.9M | Critical· 82% | Low· 1% | 0.415 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWP19QRC | Citywide Complex Pedestrian Ramps - Queens and Staten Island | Citywide | Construction | $8.6M | Critical· 81% | Low· 2% | 0.414 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| HWSRT200F | Bus Stops Under the EI - Southern Blvd | Bronx | Design | $43.1M | Critical· 82% | Low· 0% | 0.414 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SE-796 | SANITARY SEWER IN RICHMOND VALLEY ROAD | Staten Island | (Completed) | $29.3M | Critical· 83% | Low· 0% | 0.414 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SEN002184 | Replmt Combined SE & WM btwn E 125 St & E 128 St MN | Manhattan | Construction Procurement | $11.0M | High· 76% | Low· 6% | 0.414 | This project has been re-baselined multiple times across its public snapshots, which historically correlates with additional slippage. |
| HWPLZ006K | Knickerbocker Plaza Improvement/Reconstruction | Brooklyn | (Pending) | $3.8M | Critical· 82% | Low· 0% | 0.413 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| P-413QCF1 | QUEENS CTY FARM MUSEUM PHASE 2 FARMLAND RESTORATION | Queens | Construction | $11.2M | High· 78% | Low· 5% | 0.411 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| PV222HVAC | JT- Joyce Theater HVAC System Replacement | Manhattan | (Cancelled) | $6.7M | High· 74% | Low· 8% | 0.409 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| SER200148 | STM SEWER (BMP) IN NORTH RAILROAD RD-HEEMAN AV & BELFIELD AV | Staten Island | (Pending) | $3.4M | Critical· 81% | Low· 0% | 0.407 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SEQ002598 | SANITARY SEWERS IN 38TH DRIVE AREA | Queens | (Pending) | $62.3K | Critical· 81% | Low· 0% | 0.407 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SE-862 | SEQ - Storm & Sanitary Sewer Replcmnt/Ext. 146 Ave (HWQ662G) | Queens | Design | $87.2M | High· 78% | Low· 3% | 0.406 | Total budget has re-baselined upward across the last three reporting periods. |
| HWQ818 | DOUGLASTON STREET | Queens | (Pending) | $3.0M | Critical· 81% | Low· 0% | 0.406 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HED583 | Trunk & Dist WM work on W 177 St, Bronx, HWXJEROME | Bronx | Design | $33.7M | High· 63% | Low· 18% | 0.405 | Total budget has re-baselined upward across the last three reporting periods. |
| LNCA08BEL | BELMONT/BLOOMINGDALE - Elevators @ 2 Branch Libraries | Citywide | (Completed) | $1.8M | Critical· 81% | Low· 0% | 0.405 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| RED390 | Safety Improve for Richmond Terrace-Bay St, SI w/ DOT,HWR700 | Staten Island | Design | $4.7M | High· 77% | Low· 4% | 0.405 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| NDF-JEROM | Jerome Avenue Safety Improvements NDF Funding (HWXJEROME) | Bronx | Design | $40.7M | High· 73% | Low· 8% | 0.405 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HH112BLFS | BELLEVUE MEN'S RESIDENCE- FIRE SAFETY | Manhattan | (Cancelled) | $29.0M | High· 70% | Low· 11% | 0.405 | Total budget has re-baselined upward across the last three reporting periods. |