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Delay and cost-overrun probabilities for NYC DDC-managed capital projects using public sources plus Checkbook NYC. Concourse research artifact. Not an official DDC risk score or vendor rating. Model outputs are correlational, not causal.
| FMS ID | Project | Boro | Phase | Budget | Delay risk | Overrun risk | Combined | Top contributor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MED688 | Dist. WM replacement on Broadway bt. 38-40th Sts | Manhattan | Design | $3.7M | High· 69% | Low· 12% | 0.404 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| MED690 | Dist WM inHamilton Pl btw 143St & Amsterdam Av,HWMPLZ016M | Manhattan | Design | $3.4M | High· 69% | Low· 12% | 0.404 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| MED-609 | TRUNK MAIN IN W60 ST, W.E. AVE TO COLUMBUS AV | Manhattan | (Completed) | $106.4M | Critical· 80% | Low· 0% | 0.404 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| MED-611 | TRUNK WM REPLACMT IN TRANSVERSE RD 3 | Manhattan | (Pending) | $4.2M | High· 78% | Low· 3% | 0.404 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWQ662G | Springfield Gardens Phase V (SE-862) | Queens | Design | $25.7M | High· 79% | Low· 1% | 0.403 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| MED-594 | WM RPLMT IN E 46 ST & E 47 ST B/T MADISON AV & LEXINGTON AV | Manhattan | (On-Hold) | $28.6M | High· 77% | Low· 4% | 0.402 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWK472W | FLUSHING AVENUE (X755 69) | Brooklyn | (Pending) | $51.8M | Critical· 80% | Low· 0% | 0.402 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| BED-766 | WATER MAIN CONNECTIONS TO SHAFT 21B | Brooklyn | (Pending) | $6.7M | Critical· 80% | Low· 0% | 0.402 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SEQ200574 | STRM SWR & WM IN 158 AVE & 185 ST, QNS | Queens | (Completed) | $3.2M | Critical· 80% | Low· 0% | 0.402 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| PWXFITWEL | FITNESS AND WELLNESS CENTER | Bronx | (Pending) | $100.0K | High· 66% | Low· 14% | 0.401 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SE-789B-3 | B 63 ST - BAYFIELD AV & ROCKAWAY FWAY (SOMMERVILLE III) | Queens | (Pending) | $4.6M | High· 79% | Low· 1% | 0.399 | Budget has held close to its original value across the project's public history. |
| PV503ELEV | CH- Carnegie Hall Elevators | Manhattan | (Pass-Through Fund) | $2.7M | High· 71% | Low· 9% | 0.399 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWQ1198 | Reconst. of Beach Channel Drive-Phase B Non Sandy(QED-1030B) | Queens | Design | $40.7M | High· 77% | Low· 2% | 0.398 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PV291-QM2 | QMA - Queen's Museum of Art Expansion Phase II | Queens | Construction Procurement | $44.7M | High· 77% | Low· 2% | 0.398 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HH112LXFA | 85 LEXINGTON FIRE SAFETY SYSTEM | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $980.8K | High· 79% | Low· 0% | 0.397 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| BED-767 | WATER MAIN CONNECTIONS TO SHAFT 22B | Brooklyn | (Pending) | $13.0M | High· 79% | Low· 0% | 0.396 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| RED-356 | TRUNK AND MAIN DIST EXTENSIONS (NEW BUILDING) | Staten Island | (Pending) | $7.8M | High· 79% | Low· 0% | 0.395 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| PO79BMAHE | 105TH PCT BOILER REPLACEMENT | Queens | (Completed) | $1.8M | High· 78% | Low· 1% | 0.394 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWPR22K1 | Rehabilitation of Standard Ped Ramps - Brooklyn | Brooklyn | Close-out | $19.5M | High· 78% | Low· 0% | 0.394 | Budget has held close to its original value across the project's public history. |
| PW357ELC2 | 253 BROADWAY- ELECTRICAL UPGRADES PHASE 2 | Manhattan | (Pre-Design) | $32.8M | High· 71% | Low· 7% | 0.393 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SE-829 | NDF -- Storm and Sanitary Sewers in Brundwick Ave, Queens | Queens | (Pending) | $30.9M | High· 78% | Low· 0% | 0.392 | Budget has held close to its original value across the project's public history. |
| HH112CGKF | CHARLES GAY KEENER FIRE SAFETY | Manhattan | (Completed) | $4.2M | High· 78% | Low· 0% | 0.392 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SER200292 | SAN & STRM SWR REPLACMT & WM WORK IN FLOYD ST | Staten Island | (Design) | $15.1M | High· 76% | Low· 2% | 0.391 | Budget has held close to its original value across the project's public history. |
| SEX002228 | SAN SWRS IN BRUCKNER BLVD - WESTCHESTER & E CODDINGTON AV | Bronx | (Pending) | $8.5M | High· 78% | Low· 0% | 0.390 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| MED-596 | TRUNK WM IN HUDSON ST FRM LAIGHT ST TO WORTH ST | Manhattan | (Pending) | $68.7M | High· 77% | Low· 1% | 0.390 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| LBK16SCRF | Spring Creek Infrastructure Upgrade | Brooklyn | (Pre-Design) | $12.3M | High· 75% | Low· 2% | 0.388 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| SEQ200390 | STORM SEWERS IN EDGEMERE - PHASE II | Queens | (Pending) | $2.0M | High· 77% | Low· 0% | 0.388 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HED605 | Dist. WM replacement at Westchester & Prospect Aves, HWX404 | Bronx | Design | $5.6M | High· 69% | Low· 8% | 0.386 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| NDF-BSIMP | NDF - Bay Street Streetscape Improvements, HWR703 | Staten Island | (Pending) | $11.4M | High· 68% | Low· 9% | 0.385 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWS2020XM | Prior Notice Sidewalks- Manhattan & Bronx | Citywide | Close-out | $4.7M | High· 77% | Low· 0% | 0.385 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| BED-771 | REPLACEMENT OF 8" AND 12" AND 20" DISTRIBUTION MAINS | Brooklyn | (Pending) | $17.5M | High· 77% | Low· 0% | 0.385 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| LNC2STAPL | STAPLETON - Renovation and Expansion | Staten Island | (Completed) | $13.1M | High· 77% | Low· 0% | 0.383 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| LQSEHVAC | SEASIDE -HVAC | Queens | Close-out | $3.2M | High· 76% | Low· 0% | 0.382 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWKGOWANS | Gowanus Points of Agreement | Brooklyn | Design | $65.1M | High· 72% | Low· 4% | 0.382 | The project has already been in a single phase longer than most peer projects at the same phase. |
| LNMA12TOT | Fire Alarm System @ Tottenville | Staten Island | (Completed) | $299.1K | High· 76% | Low· 0% | 0.381 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| P-108KHC1 | Kingsbridge Heights Community Center Roof Reconstruction | Bronx | Design | $4.6M | High· 62% | Low· 14% | 0.381 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SEQ200419 | STORM SEWER IN 231 ST - S CONDUIT AV AND LANSING AV | Queens | (Pending) | $989.0K | High· 76% | Low· 0% | 0.380 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWR005B2 | Todt Hill Road-Circle Road, SER200285 | Staten Island | Design | $21.3M | High· 74% | Low· 2% | 0.380 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SEQ200508 | Storm Sewer Extension in Beach 32 St. | Queens | (Completed) | $16.3M | High· 76% | Low· 0% | 0.380 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| PO79-JOC | Joint Operations Center | Manhattan | (Pending) | $24.0M | High· 76% | Low· 0% | 0.379 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HW349TOUR | NYS Touring Route Program Connector ramp from North Conduit | Queens | Construction | $27.3M | High· 76% | Low· 0% | 0.379 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| HED-572 | Rep WM in Westchester Ave (HWPLZ004X) | Bronx | (Completed) | $4.9M | High· 72% | Low· 4% | 0.379 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| QED-985 | REPLACEMENT OF WATER MAIN IN VARIOUS LOCATIONS | Queens | (Completed) | $5.1M | High· 75% | Low· 0% | 0.377 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SEQ002433 | CON OF SANITARY SEWER, BROADWAY(102 AV - BAYVIEW AV) | Queens | (Pending) | $1.9M | High· 75% | Low· 0% | 0.377 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HED599 | Dist WM Replmt Intersec White Plains Rd & Mace Ave BX HWX411 | Bronx | Design | $878.9K | High· 74% | Low· 1% | 0.375 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SANDHW13 | Reconstruction of Rockaway Beach - Hurricane Sandy (QED-982) | Queens | (Completed) | $30.5M | High· 74% | Low· 1% | 0.375 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HED584 | New Dist WM in Jerome Ave from 164th to 183 St, BX | Bronx | Design | $30.9M | High· 69% | Low· 6% | 0.374 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| S216-415A | WEST 59th STREET MTS | Manhattan | Construction | $100.4M | High· 74% | Low· 0% | 0.373 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| HWPR19Q2 | Pedestrian Ramp Rehabilitation - Queens | Queens | (Pending) | $14.9M | High· 74% | Low· 0% | 0.372 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| CV19COEBU | Centers of Excellence: Bushiwick | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $67.5M | High· 74% | Low· 0% | 0.369 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |