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Delay and cost-overrun probabilities for NYC DDC-managed capital projects using public sources plus Checkbook NYC. Concourse research artifact. Not an official DDC risk score or vendor rating. Model outputs are correlational, not causal.
| FMS ID | Project | Boro | Phase | Budget | Delay risk | Overrun risk | Combined | Top contributor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HWTRR1 | Trench Restoration - Staten Island (SER002333) | Staten Island | Construction | $11.4M | Critical· 95% | Low· 9% | 0.516 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PW357FIRE | 253 BROADWAY- FIRE ALARM REPLACEMENT | Manhattan | Construction | $58.6M | Critical· 100% | Low· 3% | 0.516 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HH112FWFA | FT. WASHINGTON - FIRE ALARM | Manhattan | Design | $14.4M | Critical· 99% | Low· 4% | 0.515 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HWX413 | Hunts Point Avenue | Bronx | Design | $37.3M | Critical· 96% | Low· 7% | 0.515 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| HH112BVFA | BROWNSVILLE WOMEN FIRE SAFETY | Brooklyn | Construction Procurement | $6.0M | Critical· 99% | Low· 4% | 0.515 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| SEX20049 | Replace deteriorating retain wall Pratt Av, BX HWXPRATT | Bronx | Design | $1.6M | Critical· 96% | Low· 7% | 0.514 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HWX405 | Southern Blvd Pedestrian and Bike Improvements | Bronx | Construction Procurement | $19.9M | Critical· 96% | Low· 7% | 0.514 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PV289-DEL | NYSF - DELACORTE Theater Renovation | Manhattan | (Pending) | $41.3M | High· 79% | Low· 24% | 0.514 | The project has already been in a single phase longer than most peer projects at the same phase. |
| HWPR21MTA | FY23 Non-Standard Pedestrian Ramp Upgrades | Citywide | Design | $11.2M | Critical· 97% | Low· 6% | 0.514 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWQ274F2 | RECON OF STREETS IN ROSEDALE AREA - PHASE 2 (SEQ200592) | Queens | Construction | $52.8M | Critical· 99% | Low· 4% | 0.514 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWCSCHPMN | SAFE ROUTES TO SCHOOLS- MANHATTAN, MED683 | Citywide | Design | $35.9M | Critical· 99% | Low· 4% | 0.513 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWP2021RC | Non-Standard Installs - Staten Island | Staten Island | Design | $9.0M | Critical· 98% | Low· 4% | 0.513 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| PW77ELEV | 120-55 QUEENS BLVD. ELEVATOR MODERNIZATION | Queens | Construction Procurement | $3.8M | Critical· 99% | Low· 4% | 0.513 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWSRT200E | Safe Routes to Transit: 86th Street, BED-828 | Brooklyn | Design | $29.4M | Critical· 99% | Low· 4% | 0.513 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HWS2019M | Prior Notice Sidewalks- Manhattan | Manhattan | (Completed) | $3.6M | Critical· 97% | Low· 6% | 0.513 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| HWTRK1 | Trench Restoration - Brooklyn | Brooklyn | Construction Procurement | $67.9M | Critical· 91% | Low· 12% | 0.512 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HH112PJPL | PAMOJA HOUSE - PLUMBING UPGRADE | Brooklyn | Construction | $7.9M | Critical· 99% | Low· 3% | 0.512 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| CO81ELEC | 31 CHAMBERS ST. - ELECTRICAL AND FA SYSTEM UPGRADE | Manhattan | (Cancelled) | $32.1M | Critical· 96% | Low· 6% | 0.512 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PO79BMAJU | 26TH PRECINCT ROOF, WINDOWS & FACADE | Manhattan | Close-out | $17.5M | Critical· 100% | Low· 3% | 0.512 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWQ1204 | Bayswater Park Pedestrian Access | Queens | (Pending) | $36.2M | Critical· 98% | Low· 4% | 0.512 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWX100SBC | South Bronx East-West Crosstown SBS (HED580) | Bronx | Construction | $57.6M | Critical· 100% | Low· 2% | 0.512 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| S136-423 | Queens 11/13 FLOOR SLAB REPLACEMENT | Queens | (Cancelled) | $24.8M | Critical· 99% | Low· 3% | 0.511 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| CO306EXT2 | 170 E121 St. Exterior Reconstruction | Manhattan | Construction Procurement | $23.0M | Critical· 98% | Low· 4% | 0.511 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| HWPR20MQX | Non-Standard Upgrades Ped Ramp - TA Manhattan,Queens,&Bronx | Citywide | Construction Procurement | $16.7M | Critical· 97% | Low· 5% | 0.511 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HH112KEFA | Kenton Hall Fire Safety | Manhattan | Construction | $4.1M | Critical· 100% | Low· 3% | 0.511 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWP2020LM | Non-Standard Ped Ramp Installs - Citywide Landmark Locations | Citywide | Construction | $32.1M | Critical· 100% | Low· 2% | 0.511 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| P-407BHI3 | BOWNE HOUSE INTERIOR RESTORATIONS | Queens | Construction Procurement | $7.7M | Critical· 97% | Low· 5% | 0.511 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| PW357VAUL | 253 BROADWAY - VAULT RECONSTRUCTION | Manhattan | Design | $62.1M | Critical· 92% | Low· 10% | 0.510 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWMWTCB6 | Reconstruction of Vesey St, MED-668 | Manhattan | Construction | $15.2M | Critical· 97% | Low· 5% | 0.510 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PV957DGRW | NPF - DeGraw Street Firehouse Renovation | Brooklyn | Construction Procurement | $17.1M | Critical· 92% | Low· 10% | 0.510 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWQF033 | 28-11 QPN 7TH FL REHABILITATION | Queens | (Pending) | $15.8M | Critical· 98% | Low· 3% | 0.509 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWD10105A | Ped Safety Upgrades on Atlantic Ave - Phase 2 (BED-785B) | Brooklyn | Construction | $36.7M | Critical· 99% | Low· 2% | 0.509 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| LBC17MPGD | MAPLETON GARDEN RENOVATION | Brooklyn | Construction Procurement | $3.2M | Critical· 97% | Low· 5% | 0.508 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| PV235BDEV | BMA - Brooklyn Museum - Building Envelope Renovation | Brooklyn | Construction | $9.8M | Critical· 97% | Low· 4% | 0.508 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWPLZ006X | Westchester Square Plaza | Bronx | Design | $19.9M | Critical· 98% | Low· 4% | 0.508 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HWX404 | Southern Bronx Multi-Site Safety Improvements | Bronx | Design | $9.7M | Critical· 99% | Low· 3% | 0.507 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| LNEA13HGR | HAMILTON GRANGE:Exterior Rehabiliation/ Window | Manhattan | Design | $6.9M | Critical· 100% | Low· 2% | 0.507 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| PO79-77FA | 77TH PRECINCT FIRE ALARM SYSTEM | Brooklyn | Construction | $4.5M | Critical· 99% | Low· 2% | 0.507 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| LNCA13GBR | GEORGE BRUCE: Partial Interior/Exterior,/ Roof / Boiler | Manhattan | Construction Procurement | $9.4M | Critical· 99% | Low· 3% | 0.507 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HWXF2000B | 1400 WILLIAMSBRIDGE RD - HVAC AND FIRE ALARM SYS | Bronx | Close-out | $12.2M | Critical· 100% | Low· 2% | 0.507 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWK700B | Reconstruction of Columbia Street Area Phase II (BED-768B) | Brooklyn | Design | $52.4M | Critical· 99% | Low· 2% | 0.507 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| LBC21MNRF | Macon Infrastructure & ADA | Brooklyn | (Initiation) | $10.5M | Critical· 96% | Low· 6% | 0.507 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| S136-383N | Brooklyn 17/18 HVAC and Roof Replacement | Brooklyn | Construction | $36.8M | Critical· 100% | Low· 2% | 0.507 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWPR20MCL | Non-Standard Upgrades Ped Ramp - Manhattan Landmark | Manhattan | Construction | $21.4M | Critical· 99% | Low· 2% | 0.507 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| HWP23QC2 | Non-Standard Ped Ramps - Queens | Queens | Design | $17.4M | Critical· 82% | Low· 19% | 0.507 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWD10311 | 111th Street Malls (QED-1049 | Queens | Design | $102.3M | Critical· 99% | Low· 3% | 0.507 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWPR20MXC | Non-Standard Upgrades Ped Ramp - Manhattan & Bronx | Citywide | Construction | $29.3M | Critical· 100% | Low· 1% | 0.507 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HWCSCH4D | Safe Routes to Schools - Phase 4D, NDF-SCH4D (HED582) | Citywide | Construction | $28.8M | Critical· 100% | Low· 2% | 0.506 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HWK002377 | East 72nd Street Reconstruction Brooklyn, SEK002377 | Brooklyn | Design | $6.4M | Critical· 97% | Low· 4% | 0.506 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWP23KC | Non-Standard Ped Ramps - Brooklyn | Brooklyn | Design | $19.3M | Critical· 86% | Low· 16% | 0.506 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |