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Delay and cost-overrun probabilities for NYC DDC-managed capital projects using public sources plus Checkbook NYC. Concourse research artifact. Not an official DDC risk score or vendor rating. Model outputs are correlational, not causal.
| FMS ID | Project | Boro | Phase | Budget | Delay risk | Overrun risk | Combined | Top contributor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BED-828 | Dist WM work in 86th St btw Bay 20th & 28th St,BK, HWSRT200E | Brooklyn | Design | $10.7M | Low· 0% | Low· 5% | 0.027 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| HWCRCDB | RAISED CROSSWALKS DESIGN BUILD | Citywide | (Design Built) | $106.1M | Low· 5% | Low· 1% | 0.026 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| EC-SEX23 | Reconstruction of Existing Sewers, The Bronx | Bronx | (Completed) | $9.9M | Low· 4% | Low· 0% | 0.024 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWS2024Q1 | Prior Notice Sidewalks - Queens | Queens | Construction | $18.4M | Low· 1% | Low· 4% | 0.023 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| BBJ-Q | Boro Based Jails New Queens Detention Facility DesignBuild | Queens | Construction | $4.5B | Low· 1% | Low· 3% | 0.022 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| P-4FTTOTE | FT. TOTTEN ELEVATORS Q458-NEW | Queens | Design | $4.2M | Low· 3% | Low· 1% | 0.021 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| EC-WMC26 | Emergency Construction of Water Mains, Citywide | Citywide | Construction Procurement | $12.3M | Low· 1% | Low· 3% | 0.020 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| EC-SEQS23 | Reconstruction of Existing Sewers, South Queens | Queens | (Pending) | $18.9M | Low· 2% | Low· 2% | 0.020 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| EC-WMC22 | Emergency Reconstruction of Water Mains, Citywide | Citywide | (Pending) | $16.3M | Low· 4% | Low· 0% | 0.020 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| EC-SEQS22 | Reconstruction of Existing Sewers, South Queens | Queens | (Completed) | $12.8M | Low· 3% | Low· 0% | 0.018 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWS2023X | Prior Notice Sidewalks - Bronx | Bronx | Construction | $7.4M | Low· 2% | Low· 1% | 0.017 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| SE885AVWE | SEQ - 150th St Spine Phase II DOT Van Wyck Exp -Trunk Combi | Queens | Construction | $135.3M | Low· 3% | Low· 0% | 0.015 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| HWS2025R | Prior Notice Sidewalks - Staten Island | Staten Island | Construction Procurement | $5.6M | Low· 1% | Low· 2% | 0.014 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| PROCONTRL | Project Controls Management Services | Citywide | Construction | $9.8M | Low· 2% | Low· 1% | 0.012 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| EC-GUN23 | Emergency Guniting of Sewers, Citywide | Citywide | (Pending) | $12.0M | Low· 1% | Low· 1% | 0.012 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| EC-SEKN26 | Reconstruction of Existing Sewers, North Brooklyn | Brooklyn | Construction Procurement | $10.5M | Low· 1% | Low· 2% | 0.011 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| EC-GUN24 | Emergency Guniting of Sewers, Citywide | Citywide | (Pending) | $12.6M | Low· 1% | Low· 1% | 0.009 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWS2025Q | Prior Notice Sidewalks - Queens | Queens | Construction Procurement | $18.2M | Low· 0% | Low· 1% | 0.008 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| BBJ-K | Boro Based Jails New Brooklyn Detention Facility DesignBuild | Brooklyn | Construction | $3.3B | Low· 1% | Low· 0% | 0.008 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| SANDTWOBR | CITYWIDE RESILENCY MEASURES-Lower Manhattan Two Bridges SIRR | Citywide | Construction | $460.7M | Low· 1% | Low· 0% | 0.008 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| GKCI05-3A | GI- CONS OF ROW GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE IN CI-005 PHASE 3A | Brooklyn | Close-out | $28.9M | Low· 1% | Low· 0% | 0.006 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| P-217SCRC | Shirley Chisholm Recreation Center-Nostrand Playground DB | Brooklyn | (Design Built) | $145.4M | Low· 1% | Low· 1% | 0.006 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| P-412RWR1 | Roy Wilkins Recreation Center | Queens | (Design Built) | $131.8M | Low· 1% | Low· 0% | 0.005 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |