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Delay and cost-overrun probabilities for NYC DDC-managed capital projects using public sources plus Checkbook NYC. Concourse research artifact. Not an official DDC risk score or vendor rating. Model outputs are correlational, not causal.
| FMS ID | Project | Boro | Phase | Budget | Delay risk | Overrun risk | Combined | Top contributor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MED-607 | TRUNK MAIN CONN TO SHAFT 32B IN 2ND AVE. INTER. OF E. 35ST. | Manhattan | Construction | $59.1M | Critical· 99% | Low· 1% | 0.497 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| PV034NWCH | AMNH - Northwest Coast Hall Renovation | Manhattan | Close-out | $3.1M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.497 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| P1CROT16A | BRONX RIVER GRWAY RIVER HOUSE IN STARLIGHT PK X147-107M/407M | Bronx | (Pending) | $15.8M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.497 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWR300-03 | ROAD WIDENING AT SOUTH AVENUE AND FOREST AVENUE | Staten Island | (Completed) | $6.5M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.497 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWKNBP | North Brooklyn Pedestrian Safety | Brooklyn | Design | $45.1M | Critical· 97% | Low· 2% | 0.497 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| P109STARA | STARLIGHT PARK COMFORT STATION X147-111M | Bronx | Close-out | $6.0M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.497 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| MED-645 | Distribution water main Installation, Manhattan | Manhattan | Construction | $22.7M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.497 | Borough-specific historical patterns contribute to this project's estimated risk. |
| SER002317 | SAN & STRM SEWER IN HALPIN AVE | Staten Island | Design | $19.2M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.497 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| CO301LL | 130 STUYVESANT PL - FACADE REPAIRS LOCAL LAW 11 | Staten Island | (Completed) | $10.6M | Critical· 99% | Low· 1% | 0.497 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWP20MKC | Non-Standard Ped Ramp Installs - Manhattan & Brooklyn | Citywide | Construction Procurement | $8.4M | Critical· 93% | Low· 7% | 0.497 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| SANDELEC4 | 60TH PRECINCT ELECTRICAL SYSTEM REPLACEMENT( SANDY) | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $6.6M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.497 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWK1674 | Flatbush Avenue Downtown Brooklyn Safety Improvements | Brooklyn | Design | $34.3M | Critical· 97% | Low· 2% | 0.496 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| CO293SP | 851 GRAND CONCOURSE - FIRE PROTECTION/SPRINKLERS | Bronx | (Design) | $78.1M | Critical· 95% | Low· 4% | 0.496 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWP22MXQC | FY24 Non-Standard Pedestrian Ramp Installs - Manhattan, Bron | Citywide | Design | $17.3M | Critical· 90% | Low· 9% | 0.496 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| S136-367 | Staten Island 1 and 3 Garage Construction + SOLARGR10 | Staten Island | Construction | $233.8M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.496 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWQ1184A | James Court Roadway & Bulkhead, Queens (Joint Bid) | Queens | (Completed) | $4.2M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.496 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PW357ELEV | 253 BROADWAY- ELEVATOR MODERNIZATION | Manhattan | (Completed) | $8.4M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.496 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PW293QBLV | 120-55 QUEENS BLVD - FIRE ALARM | Queens | Construction | $13.3M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.496 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| SEQ200467 | STRM & SAN SWRS IN 14 AV B/T 115 ST & US BULKHEAD LINE | Queens | (Pending) | $55.1M | Critical· 98% | Low· 1% | 0.496 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| CJCREN | FACIILITY RENOVATIONS AT CROSSROADS JC | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $64.6M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.496 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWP2021LM | Non-Standard Installs - Landmark | Citywide | Construction Procurement | $11.1M | Critical· 95% | Low· 4% | 0.496 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| LBC16MPHC | MAPLETON HVAC REPLACEMENT | Brooklyn | Construction | $6.8M | Critical· 99% | Low· 1% | 0.496 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| E17-0006 | DSNY - BROOKLYN NORTH 1 DISTRICT &4 DISTRICT GARAGE | Brooklyn | Construction | $6.7M | Critical· 98% | Low· 2% | 0.496 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| QED-976 | SEQ - Trunk Water Main in Francis Lewis Blvd | Queens | (Completed) | $64.6M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.496 | Total budget has re-baselined upward across the last three reporting periods. |
| SEQ200519 | SEQ - Brookville-Edgewood Triangle West - Phase II (HWQ724B) | Queens | (On-hold) | $84.7M | Critical· 96% | Low· 4% | 0.496 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| CO272ELC2 | 45 MONROE PL - ELECTRICAL / FA UPGRADE | Brooklyn | Close-out | $11.0M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.496 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| LBM15RDRF | Ryder Envelope Rehabilitation | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $1.4M | Critical· 96% | Low· 3% | 0.496 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PW348-82 | FUEL TANK REPLACEMENT | Citywide | Construction | $25.9M | Critical· 98% | Low· 1% | 0.496 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| PO79FDCW1 | Front Desk Renovations for 45th, 75th, 105th, 123rd PCTS | Citywide | (Cancelled) | $350.5K | Critical· 98% | Low· 2% | 0.496 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWMM008 | EAST 86TH ST STREETSCAPE-225 EAST 79TH ,MADISON TO YORK AVE | Manhattan | (Completed) | $11.6M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.496 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SER20079 | RECON OF STORM SEWER, WILLOW AV(TOMPKINS-EDGEWATER AVS) | Staten Island | Construction | $17.0M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.496 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| BED-768B | WATER MAIN CONNECTIONS TO SHAFT 23B - PHASE II (HWK700B) | Brooklyn | Design | $60.3M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.495 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| LNCA10JMB | JEFFERSON MARKET - ADA Accessibility | Manhattan | (Completed) | $14.7M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.495 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWPEDSF4A | Multi-Site Pedestrian Safety - Phase 4A | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $7.2M | Critical· 98% | Low· 1% | 0.495 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SANDR04 | Beach 108th Streetscape Improvements (QED-1044) | Queens | (Completed) | $22.8M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.495 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SANDHW24 | WHEN AND WHERE HURRICANE SANDY - QUEENS | Queens | (Completed) | $16.3M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.495 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PO79FDBNX | BRONX FRONT DESK REPLACEMENT 42ND, 44TH, 46TH, 108TH | Bronx | Close-out | $2.9M | Critical· 98% | Low· 0% | 0.495 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| CO81SKY2 | 31 CHAMBERST ST.- RENOVATE SKYLIGHT | Manhattan | (Completed) | $10.3M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.495 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWKF488R | Hamilton Asphalt Plant Roof Replacement | Brooklyn | Close-out | $5.0M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.495 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| LBC11CHHC | CLINTON HILL - HVAC Replacement | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $832.4K | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.494 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| MED-597 | TRUNK WM IN EAST 31 STREET FRM 5TH AV TO 2ND AV | Manhattan | (Cancelled) | $15.1M | Critical· 96% | Low· 3% | 0.494 | This project has been re-baselined multiple times across its public snapshots, which historically correlates with additional slippage. |
| LNCA0996S | 96TH STREET - Exterior Rehabilitation | Manhattan | (Completed) | $2.7M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.494 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SE-751 | CHESTER AV - IRVINGTON ST AND ARBUTUS AVE | Staten Island | (Design) | $20.3M | Critical· 98% | Low· 1% | 0.494 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| SANDBCHCM | HURRICANE SANDY DAMAGE CM MANAGED PROJECTS | Citywide | (Completed) | $21.7M | Critical· 98% | Low· 1% | 0.494 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PV241EXTR | MCNY - Exterior Facade Rehabilitation | Manhattan | Construction | $6.9M | Critical· 93% | Low· 6% | 0.494 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| CO278FA3 | 360 ADAMS STREET - FIRE ALARM SYSTEM & SPRINKLER UPGRADE | Brooklyn | (On-hold) | $90.7M | Critical· 98% | Low· 1% | 0.494 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PWXTNLLS | Throgs Neck Little League- Solar Panel and Infrastructure | Bronx | (Pre-Design) | $1.6M | Critical· 94% | Low· 5% | 0.494 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| SER200285 | NEW STM. SWR EXT. & WM REPL IN TODT HILL RD., SI, HWR005B1 | Staten Island | Design | $54.2M | Critical· 98% | Low· 0% | 0.494 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HH112HSFA | HELP SEC - FIRE SAFETY | Manhattan | Construction Procurement | $7.5M | Critical· 96% | Low· 3% | 0.494 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| S195-227S | Spring St Salt Enclosure | Manhattan | (Completed) | $22.1M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.494 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |