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Delay and cost-overrun probabilities for NYC DDC-managed capital projects using public sources plus Checkbook NYC. Concourse research artifact. Not an official DDC risk score or vendor rating. Model outputs are correlational, not causal.
| FMS ID | Project | Boro | Phase | Budget | Delay risk | Overrun risk | Combined | Top contributor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PWX78BXP | BRONX BOROUGH PRESIDENT'S OFFICE INITIAL OUT-FITTING | Bronx | (Capitally Ineligible) | $175.0K | Critical· 96% | Low· 3% | 0.494 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| LBC14LDRF | LEONARD ROOF REPLACEMENT | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $2.0M | Critical· 97% | Low· 1% | 0.494 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWK614D | RECONSTRUCTION OF BERGEN AVENUE AREA, BKLYN /BED-784 | Brooklyn | Close-out | $37.3M | Critical· 98% | Low· 0% | 0.493 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWPR25Q1 | Simple Upgrades Ped Ramps- Queens. | Queens | Construction Procurement | $25.5M | High· 77% | Low· 21% | 0.493 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| PV234CSV1 | CSV - Clemente Soto Velez - Interior Code Compliance | Manhattan | Construction | $14.9M | Critical· 97% | Low· 2% | 0.493 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWK797W | Schenck Avenue, BED-803 | Brooklyn | Close-out | $12.8M | Critical· 94% | Low· 5% | 0.493 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HL82SIABE | REHAB OF THE STATEN ISLAND ANIMAL SHELTER | Staten Island | (Completed) | $15.5M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.493 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| LNC4WLEX | WOODLAWN - Branch Expansion | Bronx | Design | $11.7M | Critical· 97% | Low· 2% | 0.493 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| LNRA17NDP | NEW DORP - HVAC System Replacement | Staten Island | Construction | $7.2M | Critical· 98% | Low· 1% | 0.493 | Total budget has re-baselined upward across the last three reporting periods. |
| HWK1672 | WASHINGTON AVENUE SAFETY IMPROVEMENTS | Brooklyn | Design | $22.2M | Critical· 96% | Low· 2% | 0.493 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| SANDHW26 | Reconstruction of East 10th Road - Hurricane Sandy | Queens | (Cancelled) | $45.7K | Critical· 98% | Low· 0% | 0.493 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWCSCHPBX | SAFE ROUTES TO SCHOOLS- BRONX | Bronx | (Completed) | $15.7M | Critical· 98% | Low· 1% | 0.493 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWBARUCH | Baruch College - 25th Street Plaza (MED-634) | Manhattan | (Completed) | $14.5M | Critical· 98% | Low· 1% | 0.493 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWR00511 | Travis Avenue Widening, SER200322 | Staten Island | Design | $41.5M | Critical· 98% | Low· 1% | 0.493 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| CRO-AGS | CROTON ABOVE-GROUND STRUCTURE AND LANDSCAPING | Bronx | Close-out | $90.1M | Critical· 98% | Low· 0% | 0.493 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| LNEA13STG | ST GEORGE: Exterior and Interior renovation | Staten Island | (Completed) | $6.2M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.493 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SANDHW11 | Recon of Beach Channel Drive - Hurricane Sandy (QED-1030) | Queens | (Completed) | $13.4M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.493 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| PV262-AUD | Brooklyn Children's Museum Auditorium | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $9.8M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.493 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| PV490-INF | SHCC - Site-wide Infrastructure Upgrade | Staten Island | Construction | $19.6M | Critical· 95% | Low· 4% | 0.493 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SEK002394 | Combined SE & Dist WM Replmt on 7th Ave Brooklyn,HWK002394 | Brooklyn | (Initiation) | $131.7M | Critical· 95% | Low· 4% | 0.493 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| LQASADA | ASTORIA - Brach renovation with ADA | Queens | Construction | $19.3M | Critical· 98% | Low· 1% | 0.493 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| SE-812 | Sanitary & Storm swr in Page Av b/t Amboy Rd & Estella Pl | Staten Island | (Completed) | $63.5M | Critical· 99% | Low· 0% | 0.493 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWMWTCB2 | Reconstruction of Greenwich | Manhattan | Construction | $46.8M | Critical· 97% | Low· 1% | 0.493 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| SANDRESM1 | Citywide Resiliency Measures, ESCR, Project Area 1 | Citywide | Construction | $1.6B | Critical· 98% | Low· 0% | 0.493 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| LQQ122-FA | FAR ROCKAWAY - Replacement Facility | Queens | Construction | $35.4M | Critical· 98% | Low· 1% | 0.493 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| SANDHW19 | Reconstruction of Downtown Brooklyn - Hurricane Sandy | Brooklyn | (Design) | $1.1M | Critical· 98% | Low· 1% | 0.493 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWK1148 | JEWEL STREET AREA, SE-813 | Brooklyn | (On-Hold) | $35.8M | Critical· 95% | Low· 3% | 0.493 | Budget has held close to its original value across the project's public history. |
| HWP21KRC | Non-Standard Installs - Brooklyn and Staten Island | Citywide | Construction Procurement | $42.6M | Critical· 93% | Low· 6% | 0.492 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| S219-233A | CONSTRUCTION MANHATTAN 1/2/5 GARAGE | Manhattan | (Completed) | $214.7M | Critical· 98% | Low· 0% | 0.492 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| CO272ELV2 | 45 MONROE PL. - ELEVATOR | Brooklyn | (Pending) | $3.3M | Critical· 98% | Low· 0% | 0.492 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HBPED100M | PED BRIDGE - E 81 ST (M) | Manhattan | (Completed) | $16.2M | Critical· 98% | Low· 0% | 0.492 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWPLZ017K | Osborn Street Plaza | Brooklyn | Close-out | $7.6M | Critical· 98% | Low· 1% | 0.492 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWPLZ014M | Broadway Boulevard | Manhattan | Design | $29.6M | Critical· 96% | Low· 2% | 0.492 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWQ1190A | Reconstruction of Queens Blvd Phase 1 (QED-1042A) | Queens | Design | $132.2M | Critical· 98% | Low· 1% | 0.492 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| LQHIROOF | HILLCREST ROOF | Queens | Construction | $3.5M | Critical· 98% | Low· 1% | 0.492 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| LNCA10115 | 115TH STREET - Removal and Replacement of Floors | Manhattan | Construction | $4.8M | Critical· 98% | Low· 0% | 0.492 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SE-740B | SANITARY SEWERS IN ROCKLAND AVENUE, HWR1160 | Staten Island | (Design) | $14.4M | Critical· 98% | Low· 0% | 0.492 | This project has been re-baselined multiple times across its public snapshots, which historically correlates with additional slippage. |
| PW77417P2 | 120-55 QUEENS BLVD - PLAZA, STEPS AND ENTRANCE | Queens | Close-out | $9.0M | Critical· 98% | Low· 0% | 0.492 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| CO80ROOF2 | 27 MADISON AVE - ROOF & MISC. OPERATIONS SPACES UPGRADE | Manhattan | (Completed) | $15.6M | Critical· 98% | Low· 0% | 0.492 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| S136-419L | OAU Offices Expansion at CRS | Queens | Close-out | $5.1M | Critical· 98% | Low· 0% | 0.492 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| PO002-116 | NEW 116TH PCT | Queens | Close-out | $99.8M | Critical· 98% | Low· 0% | 0.492 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWK1048B | FLUSHING AVE - BROOKLYN GREENWAY | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $19.2M | Critical· 98% | Low· 0% | 0.492 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWR669C | RECONSTRUCTION OF ROMA, HETT, ETC, SAND669C | Staten Island | Close-out | $90.4M | Critical· 98% | Low· 1% | 0.491 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HWPLZ012M | Bogardus Plaza Clock Tower | Manhattan | (Completed) | $10.8M | Critical· 98% | Low· 0% | 0.491 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| NEWCJC2 | NEW CONSTRUCTION AT CROSSROADS JC PHASE 2.0 | Brooklyn | (Cancelled) | $11.2M | Critical· 95% | Low· 4% | 0.491 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| LBC10CDHC | CLARENDON HVAC Replacement | Brooklyn | Close-out | $4.2M | Critical· 96% | Low· 3% | 0.491 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HED-568 | New 20" sub-aqueous water main extension to Randall's Island | Bronx | (Completed) | $42.1M | Critical· 98% | Low· 0% | 0.491 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWX710A | Pelham Pkwy - West & East and North & South Bounds (Phase A) | Bronx | Construction | $146.7M | Critical· 98% | Low· 0% | 0.491 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| QED-991 | New WM, Trunk Main Ext, 33 Ave & Francis Lewis Blvd, Queens | Queens | (Completed) | $92.4M | Critical· 98% | Low· 0% | 0.491 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| PDWTC2013 | WTC CAMPUS SECURITY PLAN | Manhattan | (Completed) | $33.7M | Critical· 97% | Low· 1% | 0.491 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |