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Delay and cost-overrun probabilities for NYC DDC-managed capital projects using public sources plus Checkbook NYC. Concourse research artifact. Not an official DDC risk score or vendor rating. Model outputs are correlational, not causal.
| FMS ID | Project | Boro | Phase | Budget | Delay risk | Overrun risk | Combined | Top contributor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BED-776 | WM REPLMT EAST NEW YORK AVE B/T HOWARD AV & PACIFIC ST, ETC | Brooklyn | Construction | $99.2M | Critical· 96% | Low· 1% | 0.487 | Borough-specific historical patterns contribute to this project's estimated risk. |
| PWD99WNY1 | CENTER FOR THE WOMEN OF NEW YORK | Queens | (Completed) | $4.5M | Critical· 97% | Low· 0% | 0.487 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| LNEA13MHU | Mosholu: New Roof and Exterior Work | Bronx | (Completed) | $5.1M | Critical· 97% | Low· 0% | 0.487 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWTRQX1 | Trench Restoration - Queens and Bronx (SEX002271) | Citywide | Close-out | $18.4M | Critical· 93% | Low· 5% | 0.487 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HR25FACA | FACADE RESTORATION MULTIPLE SITES | Citywide | (Completed) | $20.5M | Critical· 97% | Low· 0% | 0.486 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWCSCHPKR | Safe Routes to Schools - Brooklyn & Staten Island | Citywide | Construction | $27.5M | Critical· 93% | Low· 5% | 0.486 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HW2CR13CW | CITYWIDE MILLING | Citywide | (Completed) | $10.7M | Critical· 97% | Low· 0% | 0.486 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SANDISLND | HURRICANE SANDY DAMAGE ROCKAWAY BEACH ENTRY ISLANDS | Citywide | (Completed) | $54.6M | Critical· 97% | Low· 0% | 0.486 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| BED-778A | Trunk & Dist WM Rep in Atlantic Ave b/t Carlton & Portland | Brooklyn | Close-out | $17.1M | Critical· 97% | Low· 0% | 0.486 | Borough-specific historical patterns contribute to this project's estimated risk. |
| PW357MOCS | 253 BROADWAY- 9TH FLOOR REHABILITATION OF MOCS SPACE | Manhattan | (Pending) | $3.9M | Critical· 97% | Low· 0% | 0.486 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SANDHWSI | Non When & Where - Staten Island - Hurricane Sandy | Staten Island | (Completed) | $7.2M | Critical· 97% | Low· 0% | 0.486 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SEQ200604 | St. SE Ext in College Pl btwn 5th ave to US Bulkhead Line QN | Queens | (On-Hold) | $7.2M | Critical· 96% | Low· 2% | 0.486 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| PW348-71 | FUEL TANK REPLACEMENT | Citywide | Construction | $29.5M | Critical· 96% | Low· 1% | 0.486 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| QED-1049 | Rplmnt WM at 111 St btw 45th & Corona Ave (HWD10311) | Queens | Design | $6.7M | Critical· 91% | Low· 6% | 0.485 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| LNCA11BLD | BLOOMINGDALE - Interior Renovation | Manhattan | (Completed) | $3.6M | Critical· 97% | Low· 0% | 0.485 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SEX200400 | STORM & SAN SEWERS REPL & EXT IN MININIEFORD AVE AREA | Bronx | Construction | $23.5M | Critical· 96% | Low· 1% | 0.485 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| LQD122-WN | WOODHAVEN - Renovation | Queens | (Cancelled) | $2.8M | Critical· 93% | Low· 4% | 0.485 | Total budget has re-baselined upward across the last three reporting periods. |
| GE-348 | EMERGENCY RECONSTRUCTION OF WATER MAINS | Citywide | (Pending) | $12.3M | Critical· 96% | Low· 1% | 0.485 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| P-303ERPK | East River Park | Manhattan | Construction | $17.0M | Critical· 93% | Low· 4% | 0.485 | Borough-specific historical patterns contribute to this project's estimated risk. |
| LNCAL15CC | Countee Cullen:Exterior Renovation | Manhattan | Close-out | $9.6M | Critical· 96% | Low· 1% | 0.484 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| P-102DELV | Del Valle Square X009-111M | Bronx | (Completed) | $27.4M | Critical· 94% | Low· 3% | 0.484 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWP19CWLM | CITYWIDE COMPLEX PED RAMPS (LANDMARK) - MANHATTAN AND BRONX | Citywide | Construction | $17.9M | Critical· 96% | Low· 1% | 0.484 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| HWXJEROME | Jerome Ave Safety Improvement,NDF-JEROM,HED583,HED584,HED585 | Bronx | Design | $11.4M | Critical· 96% | Low· 0% | 0.484 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| LBC17CDOP | CLARENDON OUTDOOR PLAZA | Brooklyn | Construction | $1.1M | Critical· 97% | Low· 0% | 0.484 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| PV341SIPA | SIHS - Security System and Security Gates | Staten Island | (Initiation) | $2.0M | High· 76% | Low· 21% | 0.484 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWPR19QRC | Complex Upgrades Ped Ramps - Queens and Staten Island | Citywide | Construction | $12.2M | Critical· 96% | Low· 1% | 0.484 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| JJ1FACREN | FACILITIES RENOVATIONS | Citywide | (Completed) | $72.4M | Critical· 96% | Low· 0% | 0.484 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| LQD122-QW | QUEENS WEST BRANCH | Queens | (Completed) | $49.2M | Critical· 97% | Low· 0% | 0.483 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWK002394 | Dyker Heights, SEK002394 | Brooklyn | (Initiation) | $936.0K | Critical· 93% | Low· 4% | 0.483 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SE-813 | Storm & San Sewer& WM work in "Jewel Streets"area (HWK1148) | Citywide | (Cancelled) | $54.4M | Critical· 95% | Low· 1% | 0.483 | Total budget has re-baselined upward across the last three reporting periods. |
| E16-0002 | DCAS - Queens Civil Court | Queens | Construction | $7.5M | Critical· 96% | Low· 1% | 0.483 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWK2013GB | Gerritsen Beach - Street Reconstruction | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $15.4M | Critical· 96% | Low· 0% | 0.483 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWCSCH3E | SAFE ROUTES TO SCHOOLS-94 SCHOOLS | Citywide | (Completed) | $11.6M | Critical· 97% | Low· 0% | 0.483 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| LBK16STRF | Saratoga Envelope Rehab | Brooklyn | Construction | $1.2M | Critical· 96% | Low· 0% | 0.483 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| LQFLELV | FLUSHING LIBRARY - CONSTRUCTION OF SECOND ELEVATOR | Queens | Close-out | $11.1M | Critical· 96% | Low· 0% | 0.482 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| GKOH15-03 | GI - GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE IN OH-015 GRAVESEND BAY CSO PH 3 | Brooklyn | Construction | $108.1M | Critical· 94% | Low· 3% | 0.482 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| SEK002377 | San sewer & WM repl 72nd St btwn Av L & Royce Pl, HWK002377 | Brooklyn | Design | $4.8M | Critical· 93% | Low· 3% | 0.482 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| PV490-C | SHCC - SHCC Main Hall Bldg C Roof Reconstruction | Staten Island | (Completed) | $4.1M | Critical· 96% | Low· 0% | 0.482 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| LBK15BDHC | Bedford Heating & Cooling | Brooklyn | Close-out | $5.3M | Critical· 93% | Low· 3% | 0.482 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PO141-40P | NEW 40TH PRECINCT | Citywide | Close-out | $91.8M | Critical· 96% | Low· 0% | 0.482 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWPLZ004X | Morrison Avenue Plaza (HED-572) | Bronx | (Completed) | $7.8M | Critical· 96% | Low· 1% | 0.482 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PV829HVAC | ADH - Aaron Davis Hall /Harlem Stage Gatehouse HVAC | Manhattan | Design | $11.0M | Critical· 85% | Low· 11% | 0.482 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HH115REGX | REGENT FAMILY RESIDENCE EXTERIOR UPGRADE | Manhattan | Close-out | $22.1M | Critical· 96% | Low· 0% | 0.482 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWQ121B3 | RECONSTRUCTION OF SOUTH JAMAICA AREA (SEQ200562) | Queens | Design | $41.0M | Critical· 93% | Low· 3% | 0.482 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| MED-619 | Trunk Main replacement, b'way b/t w 93 & 97 st, Manh | Manhattan | Design | $28.6M | Critical· 94% | Low· 2% | 0.482 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HWK1048C | KENT AVE, BED-810 | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $13.6M | Critical· 96% | Low· 0% | 0.482 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| LBM15RDHC | Ryder Heating & Cooling | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $3.7M | Critical· 96% | Low· 1% | 0.482 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWK2048 | Jamaica Bay Greenway - Paerdegat Ave.N Connector BED833 | Brooklyn | Construction | $10.8M | Critical· 91% | Low· 5% | 0.481 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| PV272EDUC | QBG - Queens Botanical Garden Educ Bldg Renovation | Queens | Construction | $38.4M | Critical· 94% | Low· 3% | 0.481 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| LQD122-RO | ROCHDALE VILLAGE - ALC Renovation | Queens | (Closeout) | $5.0M | Critical· 96% | Low· 0% | 0.481 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |