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Delay and cost-overrun probabilities for NYC DDC-managed capital projects using public sources plus Checkbook NYC. Concourse research artifact. Not an official DDC risk score or vendor rating. Model outputs are correlational, not causal.
| FMS ID | Project | Boro | Phase | Budget | Delay risk | Overrun risk | Combined | Top contributor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PV490JNFC | SHCC - Building D John Noble Facade/Exterior Wall Renovation | Staten Island | Construction Procurement | $5.8M | Critical· 82% | Low· 14% | 0.480 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| LQD122-CL | Queens Central Library Renovation - Pass-Through | Queens | Close-out | $6.3M | Critical· 86% | Low· 10% | 0.480 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWP2020KC | Non-Standard Ped Ramp Installs - Brooklyn | Brooklyn | Construction | $21.4M | Critical· 95% | Low· 1% | 0.480 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWX406 | Northwest Bronx School Safety Improvements, SEX002274 | Bronx | Design | $13.6M | Critical· 95% | Low· 1% | 0.480 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| PV490ELEC | SHCC - Snug Harbor Cult. Ctr. Site - Wide Electrical Upgrade | Staten Island | (Completed) | $5.9M | Critical· 95% | Low· 1% | 0.480 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| CC253B | 100 GOLD- 21C3 | Manhattan | (Completed) | $16.9M | Critical· 96% | Low· 0% | 0.480 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| PWD005NEW | NONTRADITIONAL EMPLOYMENT FOR WOMEN | Manhattan | (Completed) | $2.6M | Critical· 96% | Low· 0% | 0.480 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SANDHW08 | Reconstruction of Front Street-Hurricane Sandy | Manhattan | Close-out | $35.4M | Critical· 94% | Low· 2% | 0.480 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| PW3171C | 1 CENTRE STREET- FACADE REHAB | Manhattan | (Cancelled) | $24.8M | Critical· 95% | Low· 1% | 0.480 | This project has been re-baselined multiple times across its public snapshots, which historically correlates with additional slippage. |
| PV175ROOF | SIZ - Roof Replacement | Staten Island | (Completed) | $3.1M | Critical· 96% | Low· 0% | 0.479 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SAND1048 | BWG - Sunset Park North, BED-807 | Brooklyn | Construction | $27.6M | Critical· 92% | Low· 3% | 0.479 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| PW77GLDA2 | 100 GOLD ST.- MIS HVAC UPGRADES | Manhattan | (Completed) | $4.6M | Critical· 96% | Low· 0% | 0.479 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWK779W | EMPIRE BOULEVARD, BED-796 | Brooklyn | Construction | $19.0M | Critical· 96% | Low· 0% | 0.479 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| DOTSEQ02 | Southeast Queens - DOT Priority Grids Group 2 (SEQPGRD2) | Queens | (Cancelled) | $16.0M | Critical· 92% | Low· 4% | 0.479 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| PV669-NPC | NPC - Nuyorican Poets Cafe Renovation | Manhattan | Construction | $26.8M | Critical· 94% | Low· 2% | 0.478 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| SEK002380 | Combined relief sewer & WM replac. at 7ST B/T 3 & 4 AV, BKL | Brooklyn | Construction | $16.4M | Critical· 95% | Low· 1% | 0.478 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWMP2012 | TIMES SQUARE (SEN002160) | Manhattan | (Completed) | $84.7M | Critical· 96% | Low· 0% | 0.478 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SE-807 | Storm & San Sewers in 20th Ave b/t 126 St & US Bulkhead Line | Queens | (Completed) | $147.5M | Critical· 96% | Low· 0% | 0.478 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| LQLAROOF | LAURELTON ROOF | Queens | (Completed) | $2.5M | Critical· 95% | Low· 0% | 0.478 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HEDA-003 | Accelerated Distribution WM replcmnt & sewer rehab: BX | Bronx | (Completed) | $24.8M | Critical· 95% | Low· 0% | 0.477 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| PO223-001 | NEW STATEN ISLAND PRECINCT | Staten Island | (Pending) | $69.9M | Critical· 95% | Low· 0% | 0.477 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| EP6-KENT2 | 356 FLUSING, BUILDING REPAIR/UPGRADE | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $37.0M | Critical· 95% | Low· 0% | 0.477 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| LBC12STHC | Saratoga Heating & Cooling | Brooklyn | (Pending) | $3.6M | Critical· 95% | Low· 0% | 0.477 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWX411 | Bus Stops Under the El: White Plains Rd and Mace Ave, HED599 | Bronx | Design | $5.8M | Critical· 81% | Low· 15% | 0.477 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HH115SGFA | SPRINGFIELD GARDEN - FIRE ALARM SYSTEM UPGRADE | Queens | (Completed) | $1.4M | Critical· 95% | Low· 0% | 0.477 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| NEWHJC2 | NEW CONSTRUCTION AT HORIZON JC PHASE 2.0 | Bronx | Design | $393.1M | Critical· 92% | Low· 3% | 0.477 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| HWK1673 | South Brooklyn Pedestrian Safety Improvements | Brooklyn | Design | $29.9M | Critical· 94% | Low· 2% | 0.477 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| SANDY4-50 | SANDY-Rockaway Operational Headquarters Reconstruction DB | Queens | (Design Built) | $30.9M | Critical· 95% | Low· 1% | 0.476 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| BED-803 | WM Repl in Schenck Av b/t Flatlands & Jamaica Av Bk, HWK797W | Brooklyn | Close-out | $4.7M | Critical· 94% | Low· 2% | 0.476 | Budget has held close to its original value across the project's public history. |
| LBM22WWBR | Walt Whitman Branch Overhaul | Brooklyn | (Initiation) | $13.0M | Critical· 91% | Low· 4% | 0.476 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PWBXCRC | Bronx Borough President Office Reconstruction | Bronx | (Pending) | $750.0K | Critical· 90% | Low· 6% | 0.476 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SEQ002550 | SANITARY SEWERS IN EDGEMERE - PHASE II | Queens | (Pending) | $4.7M | Critical· 95% | Low· 0% | 0.476 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| TLCWOOD | TLC - NEW OFFICE FACILITY - 24-55 BQE WEST | Queens | Construction | $159.7M | Critical· 95% | Low· 0% | 0.476 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PW348-81 | FUEL TANK REPLACEMENT | Citywide | Construction | $25.8M | Critical· 93% | Low· 2% | 0.475 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| SE-887 | NDF -- Storm & Sanitary Sewers, WM work in Cornaga Ave, Qns | Queens | (Pending) | $25.3M | Critical· 93% | Low· 3% | 0.475 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| WM-LC-17 | Citywide Lining Contract for Water Mains | Citywide | Close-out | $5.9M | Critical· 94% | Low· 1% | 0.475 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| CO302ST | 18 RICHMOND TERRACE - EXTERIOR STEPS RECONSTRUCTION | Staten Island | Close-out | $8.1M | Critical· 95% | Low· 0% | 0.475 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| P-1VCPDBR | Vancortlandt Park pedestrian bridge | Bronx | (On-Hold) | $10.8M | Critical· 94% | Low· 1% | 0.475 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| BED-784 | RECON OF WM I& STORM SWR IN BERGEN AVE AREA, HWK614D | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $38.6M | Critical· 95% | Low· 0% | 0.475 | Budget has held close to its original value across the project's public history. |
| SEQ002717 | WM & SE work on 48 St btwn Barnett & 37th Ave, QN Shaft 17B | Queens | (Initiation) | $142.5M | Critical· 93% | Low· 2% | 0.475 | Total budget has re-baselined upward across the last three reporting periods. |
| PWKBEFORD | BEDFORD ATLANTIC ARMORY - NENOVATIONS BEDFORD ATLANTIC ARMOR | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $2.2M | Critical· 94% | Low· 1% | 0.474 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| LNEM12MLB | MUHLENBERG - Sidewalk Vault | Manhattan | Close-out | $1.9M | Critical· 94% | Low· 1% | 0.474 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| LQD122GL2 | GLENDALE LIBRARY RENOVATION | Queens | (Completed) | $10.0M | Critical· 95% | Low· 0% | 0.474 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| MED-584B | MADISON AVE TRUNK MAINS - PHASE B | Manhattan | (Completed) | $17.7M | Critical· 95% | Low· 0% | 0.474 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| LBC13BPRF | Borough Park Overhaul | Brooklyn | Construction | $31.9M | Critical· 93% | Low· 1% | 0.474 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| SE-886 | NDF -- Storm & Sanitary Sewers in Beach Channel Drive, Qns | Queens | (Pre-Design) | $53.3M | Critical· 95% | Low· 0% | 0.474 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWPLZ003M | Montefiore Park and Plaza Reconstruction/Improvement | Manhattan | (Completed) | $21.9M | Critical· 94% | Low· 0% | 0.474 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HH112BLEN | Bellevue Auditorium Structural Reconstruction | Manhattan | Construction | $1.4M | Critical· 92% | Low· 2% | 0.474 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| MEDA-002 | Accelerated Distribution WM replcmnt & sewer rebhab - MAN | Manhattan | (Pending) | $26.2M | Critical· 93% | Low· 2% | 0.474 | Borough-specific historical patterns contribute to this project's estimated risk. |
| HWCSCH4B1 | Safe Routes to Schools - Phase 4B1 | Citywide | (Completed) | $9.1M | Critical· 95% | Low· 0% | 0.474 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |