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Delay and cost-overrun probabilities for NYC DDC-managed capital projects using public sources plus Checkbook NYC. Concourse research artifact. Not an official DDC risk score or vendor rating. Model outputs are correlational, not causal.
| FMS ID | Project | Boro | Phase | Budget | Delay risk | Overrun risk | Combined | Top contributor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOLARDOS2 | Staten Island 3 Garage HVAC | Staten Island | (Completed) | $3.5M | Critical· 94% | Low· 1% | 0.473 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| MED-617 | CORE PGM: DIST WM EXTEN & REPLACMTS, NEW BLGS | Manhattan | (Pending) | $10.7M | Critical· 93% | Low· 1% | 0.473 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SOLARDOS1 | Brooklyn 17/18 HVAC AND ROOF REPLACEMENT | Brooklyn | Construction | $8.8M | Critical· 94% | Low· 0% | 0.473 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PW29310R | 10 RICHMOND TERRACE - FIRE ALARM | Staten Island | Construction Procurement | $15.0M | High· 77% | Low· 17% | 0.473 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| ACEDCL213 | DCLA - AMNH - S3A Air Handling Unit | Manhattan | (Pending) | $13.4M | High· 79% | Low· 16% | 0.473 | This project has been re-baselined multiple times across its public snapshots, which historically correlates with additional slippage. |
| EO26-0002 | DCAS-Manhattan Municipal Building | Manhattan | Construction | $2.3M | Critical· 90% | Low· 4% | 0.472 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| PV385RLP3 | SIG - Signature Theater Center - Phase 3 | Manhattan | Construction | $1.6M | Critical· 93% | Low· 2% | 0.472 | Budget has held close to its original value across the project's public history. |
| HWP19KC1 | Citywide Complex Pedestrian Ramps - Brooklyn | Brooklyn | Close-out | $11.0M | Critical· 94% | Low· 0% | 0.472 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| SEK20076 | Replace deficient combined sewers & WM in East 80 St, HWTRK1 | Brooklyn | Construction Procurement | $9.3M | High· 68% | Low· 27% | 0.472 | Total budget has re-baselined upward across the last three reporting periods. |
| HWQ1193 | Union Turnpike Center Median Repl | Queens | Close-out | $12.5M | Critical· 94% | Low· 0% | 0.471 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWM2025 | Delancey Street Safety Improvements (MED-667) | Manhattan | Construction Procurement | $94.2M | Critical· 89% | Low· 6% | 0.471 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HWPR22Q1 | Rehabilitation of Standard Ped Ramps - Queens | Queens | Close-out | $20.6M | Critical· 94% | Low· 0% | 0.471 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| LQQVHVAC | QUEENS VILLAGE - HVAC | Queens | (Pending) | $1.3M | Critical· 91% | Low· 4% | 0.471 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWMWTCB1 | Reconstruction of Nassau St | Manhattan | Construction | $17.4M | Critical· 93% | Low· 1% | 0.471 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SEQ002700 | REHABILITATION OF COMBINED SEWER AND WATER MAIN | Queens | (Pending) | $8.7M | Critical· 92% | Low· 2% | 0.471 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| BED-810 | Water Main work in Brooklyn Waterfront Gateway, HWK1048C | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $14.2M | Critical· 94% | Low· 0% | 0.471 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWQ1195 | Colfax and Murdock Street Raising (SEQNS003) | Queens | (Cancelled) | $13.5M | Critical· 89% | Low· 5% | 0.470 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| LQQ122-1E | ELMHURST - Replacement Facility | Queens | (Completed) | $39.5M | Critical· 94% | Low· 0% | 0.470 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SER200146 | STM SEWERS (BMP) IN BLOONINGDALE AV-AMBOY RD & RICHMOND PKWY | Staten Island | (Pending) | $5.4M | Critical· 94% | Low· 0% | 0.470 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWQ1190B | Reconstruction of Queens Blvd Phase 2( QED-1042B) | Queens | Design | $85.5M | Critical· 93% | Low· 1% | 0.470 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWR703 | Bay Street Area Safety Improvements, NDF-BSIMP, RED-392 | Staten Island | Design | $44.6M | Critical· 93% | Low· 1% | 0.470 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| BED798 | 72" Replacement in Flatbush Avenue between Sterling Pl & 8th | Brooklyn | Construction | $58.1M | Critical· 94% | Low· 0% | 0.470 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWP19KC2 | Citywide Complex Pedestrian Ramps - Brooklyn | Brooklyn | Close-out | $8.9M | Critical· 94% | Low· 0% | 0.470 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWX409 | Willis Ave Bikeway Improvements | Bronx | Design | $72.0M | Critical· 94% | Low· 0% | 0.470 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| HWS2014X | PRIOR NOTICE SIDEWALKS - BRONX | Bronx | (Completed) | $4.2M | Critical· 94% | Low· 0% | 0.470 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWPR22KR | Rehabilitation of Standard Ped Ramps - Brooklyn & SI | Citywide | Close-out | $19.1M | Critical· 93% | Low· 1% | 0.470 | Total budget has re-baselined upward across the last three reporting periods. |
| LNBXA08LS | BRONX - Life Safety Projects @ 8 Branch Libraries | Bronx | (Completed) | $2.4M | Critical· 93% | Low· 1% | 0.470 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SER002329 | SAN, STM & WM IN LANDMARK COLONY | Staten Island | Close-out | $33.5M | Critical· 93% | Low· 1% | 0.469 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWP24KC | Non-Standard Ped Ramps - Brooklyn | Brooklyn | Design | $20.0M | Critical· 89% | Low· 5% | 0.469 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| PV475ROOF | NYST - NYC Ballet Roof Replacement | Manhattan | Construction Procurement | $14.8M | Critical· 92% | Low· 2% | 0.468 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| SEN20008 | Install SE Catch Basins at Dyckman St Nagle Ave, MN | Manhattan | Design | $8.2M | Critical· 84% | Low· 10% | 0.468 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWS2020X | Prior Notice Sidewalks- Bronx | Staten Island | (Completed) | $5.8M | Critical· 92% | Low· 1% | 0.468 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HH115JCFS | JACKSON FAMILY FIRE SAFETY | Bronx | Close-out | $2.4M | Critical· 93% | Low· 1% | 0.468 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| HWC988QB3 | QUEENS BLVD AT UNION TURNPIKE, PUNCH THROUGH | Queens | (Pending) | $3.4M | Critical· 93% | Low· 1% | 0.468 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| PW348-74 | FUEL TANK REPLACEMENT | Staten Island | Close-out | $32.2M | Critical· 93% | Low· 0% | 0.468 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| MIBBNC002 | Last Chance Pond BMP NC 11/12, storm & sanitary sewer constr | Staten Island | (Completed) | $59.4M | Critical· 93% | Low· 0% | 0.467 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWQ724B | Recon of Streets in Brookville-Edgewood Triangle (SEQ200519) | Queens | (On-hold) | $65.4M | Critical· 86% | Low· 7% | 0.467 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWP2020TA | Non-Standard Ped Ramp Installs - Manh, Brnx, Bk, & Queens | Citywide | Construction | $39.0M | Critical· 90% | Low· 3% | 0.467 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| LBM13LDHC | LEONARD HVAC REPLACEMENT | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $5.0M | Critical· 93% | Low· 0% | 0.467 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| LBM16GSFC | GRAVESEND FACADE REHAB | Brooklyn | Construction | $2.7M | Critical· 93% | Low· 0% | 0.467 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| PW348-84 | FUEL TANK REPLACEMENT | Citywide | Construction | $26.2M | Critical· 91% | Low· 2% | 0.467 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWS2023M | Prior Notice Sidewalks - Manhattan | Manhattan | Close-out | $7.6M | Critical· 89% | Low· 5% | 0.467 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| E16-0004 | DSNY - Queens 7 District Garage Annex | Queens | (Completed) | $2.0M | Critical· 92% | Low· 1% | 0.467 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| GCTI10-1B | CONS OF ROW GI FLUSHING CRK CSO TRIB AREA TI-10, ST 1, PH B | Queens | (Completed) | $19.2M | Critical· 92% | Low· 1% | 0.466 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWP20KRC | Non-Standard Ped Ramp Installs - Brooklyn & Staten Island | Citywide | Design | $8.6M | Critical· 87% | Low· 6% | 0.466 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| BED-778 | TRUNK & DIST. W/M REPL IN ATALNTIC AV B/T CARLTON & CLASSON | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $19.9M | Critical· 93% | Low· 0% | 0.465 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PV791-TNC | Roof and HVAC Replacement | Manhattan | Construction | $4.5M | Critical· 90% | Low· 3% | 0.465 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SEQ200586 | Broad Channel: Storm & San Sewers in W 11th Rd. (HWQ1182B) | Queens | Close-out | $48.1M | Critical· 93% | Low· 0% | 0.465 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| LBC22JBIF | JAMAICA BAY INFRASTRUCTURE UPGRADE | Brooklyn | (Pre-Design) | $6.2M | Critical· 86% | Low· 7% | 0.465 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWXS911 | Reconstruction of the Summit Place Step Street | Bronx | Design | $14.2M | Critical· 92% | Low· 1% | 0.465 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |