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Delay and cost-overrun probabilities for NYC DDC-managed capital projects using public sources plus Checkbook NYC. Concourse research artifact. Not an official DDC risk score or vendor rating. Model outputs are correlational, not causal.
| FMS ID | Project | Boro | Phase | Budget | Delay risk | Overrun risk | Combined | Top contributor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LQAUB-RG | Auburndale - Reading Garden | Queens | Pre-Design | $0 | Critical· 90% | Low· 1% | 0.455 | Total budget has re-baselined upward across the last three reporting periods. |
| P-407BHV4 | BOWNE HOUSE VISITORS CENTER Q022 | Queens | (Initiation) | $7.2M | Critical· 88% | Low· 3% | 0.454 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| EC-SEQN25 | Reconstruction of Existing Sewers, North Queens | Queens | (Completed) | $10.6M | Critical· 90% | Low· 1% | 0.454 | Total budget has re-baselined upward across the last three reporting periods. |
| HWCSCH4C2 | Safe Routes to Schools - Phase 4C2 | Citywide | (Completed) | $16.6M | Critical· 90% | Low· 1% | 0.454 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SE-414A | SANITRY SEWER IN CEDAR GROVE AV- EBBITS ST & DORPLANE | Staten Island | Close-out | $0 | Critical· 89% | Low· 2% | 0.453 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWK639WB | Adams Street Pedestrian Safety and Security | Brooklyn | Design | $15.4M | Critical· 90% | Low· 1% | 0.453 | Budget has held close to its original value across the project's public history. |
| HWP2024S | Standard Pedestrian Ramp Installations - Unramped Locations | Citywide | Construction | $8.6M | Critical· 85% | Low· 6% | 0.453 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| SEK002351 | Rehab of SWR & WM in Wycoff Av bt Cooper &Flushing Av,HWK876 | Brooklyn | Design | $24.4M | Critical· 85% | Low· 5% | 0.453 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| LNXA12GRC | GRAND CONCOURSE - ADA Compliance and Related Work | Bronx | (Pending) | $4.9M | Critical· 90% | Low· 0% | 0.453 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SER200290 | New Storm Sewer Ext & Water Main Replacement in Forest Ave | Staten Island | (Design) | $4.7M | Critical· 90% | Low· 1% | 0.452 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| P-3RANDAL | Randall's Island Infrastructure, Roadways, Drainage, & CS | Manhattan | Design | $40.7M | Critical· 89% | Low· 1% | 0.452 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| LQD122BR2 | BROADWAY LIBRARY - RENOVATION (PHASE THREE AND FOUR) | Queens | Construction | $6.4M | Critical· 89% | Low· 1% | 0.452 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SE-824 | SEQ - 230th Place Laurelton Area - Part 1, Phase B | Queens | (Pending) | $143.8M | Critical· 85% | Low· 6% | 0.452 | Total budget has re-baselined upward across the last three reporting periods. |
| SEQ002642 | STORM &SANITARY SEWER IN 111 AV, ANDERSON RD, 224 ST | Queens | (Cancelled) | $1.1M | Critical· 90% | Low· 0% | 0.452 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| GQTI10-02 | — | — | (Completed) | $13.8M | Critical· 89% | Low· 1% | 0.452 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWP22KQC | FY24 Non-Standard Pedestrian Ramp Installs - Brooklyn & Quee | Citywide | Design | $18.7M | High· 77% | Low· 13% | 0.451 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| CO277ELV2 | 25-10 COURT HOUSE SQ.- ELEVATORS | Queens | (Completed) | $4.6M | Critical· 90% | Low· 0% | 0.451 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| RWX020 | RETAINING WALL - JEROME AV NB AFTER E 196 ST | Bronx | (Completed) | $21.1M | Critical· 90% | Low· 0% | 0.451 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| CO296ELEC | 125-01 QUEENS BLVD - ELECTRICAL, FA, SPRINKLER UPGRADES | Queens | (On-Hold) | $77.6M | High· 80% | Low· 10% | 0.451 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SER200281 | Seguine Avenue Storm & San Sewers, Lemon Creek Watershed | Staten Island | (Pending) | $25.7M | Critical· 90% | Low· 0% | 0.450 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| GCJA03-3B | GI - CONS OF ROW GI IN JAMAICA BAY CSO AREAS JAM-03 & JAM-3A | Queens | (Completed) | $19.8M | Critical· 87% | Low· 3% | 0.450 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HAM20BVCC | BROWNSVILLE COMMUNITY CENTER | Brooklyn | Close-out | $9.4M | Critical· 89% | Low· 1% | 0.450 | Borough-specific historical patterns contribute to this project's estimated risk. |
| PV467HECK | East Harlem Center/LDC - Heckscher Bldg. Roof Renovations | Manhattan | Close-out | $6.8M | Critical· 88% | Low· 2% | 0.450 | Budget has held close to its original value across the project's public history. |
| SE-795 | Storm & Sani Sewer in Chandler St - Nameoke Av & Battery Rd | Queens | (Completed) | $29.0M | Critical· 90% | Low· 0% | 0.450 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| P-1ORCHMO | Orchard Beach M&O Facility Reconstruction DB | Bronx | (Design Built) | $46.1M | Critical· 89% | Low· 0% | 0.449 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SE-842A1 | SEQ - Storm Sewer Outlet in 224th Street | Queens | Construction | $119.4M | Critical· 89% | Low· 1% | 0.449 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PV467WFAC | East Harlem Arts, LDC - Heckscher Bldg. W Facade Renovation | Manhattan | Construction | $6.7M | Critical· 87% | Low· 3% | 0.449 | Budget has held close to its original value across the project's public history. |
| HED-CLUB | CROTON ABOVE-GROUND STRUCTURE AND LANDSCAPING | Bronx | Close-out | $17.5M | High· 80% | Low· 10% | 0.449 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HL82MANAT | Manhattan Animal Care Center Upgrade | Manhattan | Construction | $9.2M | Critical· 90% | Low· 0% | 0.449 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SER200247 | New Storm Sewers in King St | Staten Island | (On-hold) | $46.3M | Critical· 89% | Low· 0% | 0.449 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWS2020K1 | Prior Notice Sidewalks- Brooklyn | Brooklyn | Construction | $8.2M | Critical· 90% | Low· 0% | 0.449 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWPLZ015M | Pershing Square East Plaza/Streetscape Reconstruction | Manhattan | Close-out | $16.4M | Critical· 88% | Low· 2% | 0.449 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| QED-1042A | Watermain replacement & sewer repair on Queens Blvd-HWQ1190A | Queens | Design | $105.6M | Critical· 87% | Low· 3% | 0.449 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HL82CHNWH | COMMUNITY HEALTHCARE NETWORK-WASHINGTON HEIGHTS | Manhattan | (Capitally Ineligible) | $1.0M | Critical· 89% | Low· 1% | 0.448 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HH112SWFA | SCHWARTZ WARDS ISLAND FIRE SAFETY | Manhattan | Construction | $2.9M | Critical· 87% | Low· 2% | 0.448 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| SE-810 | STORM & SAN SWR, WILLET PT BLVD WHITESTONE AREA PHASE 2 | Queens | (Completed) | $107.5M | Critical· 89% | Low· 0% | 0.448 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| LNCA16WH1 | Washington Heights - Third Floor Renovation | Citywide | (Pass-Through Fund) | $2.5M | Critical· 87% | Low· 2% | 0.447 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| RED-388 | Install Distribution WM throughout Brooklyn & Staten Island | Citywide | Close-out | $11.8M | Critical· 89% | Low· 1% | 0.447 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWPR19KC | Complex Upgrades Ped Ramp - Brooklyn | Brooklyn | Close-out | $20.0M | Critical· 89% | Low· 0% | 0.447 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PV205LIEL | NYBG - Library Building Elevator | Bronx | (Construction) | $2.4M | High· 72% | Low· 18% | 0.447 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWS2021X | PRIOR NOTICE SIDEWALK - BRONX | Bronx | (Completed) | $2.8M | Critical· 89% | Low· 0% | 0.447 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SER200182 | STORM SEWERS IN LEMON CREEK WATERSHED AREA (BMP) | Staten Island | (Pending) | $2.8M | Critical· 89% | Low· 0% | 0.446 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SEQ200341 | ROCKAWAY BEACH BLVD, B 90TH ST AND B 94TH ST | Queens | (Cancelled) | $12.1M | Critical· 89% | Low· 0% | 0.446 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWK1153A | DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN REHABILITATION - PHASE II | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $11.2M | Critical· 89% | Low· 0% | 0.445 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| BED-762 | REPLACE WATER MAIN IN CRESCENT ST, BK | Brooklyn | (Pending) | $18.5M | Critical· 89% | Low· 0% | 0.445 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| PW348-72 | FUEL TANK REPLACEMENT | Citywide | Construction | $23.2M | Critical· 87% | Low· 2% | 0.444 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| SANDHWSIB | Swaim & Huguenot Ave Improvements | Staten Island | Close-out | $4.7M | Critical· 85% | Low· 4% | 0.444 | Total budget has re-baselined upward across the last three reporting periods. |
| PW77GOWAN | GOWANUS CANAL 1 ST TURNING BASIN | Brooklyn | Construction Procurement | $3.7M | Critical· 88% | Low· 0% | 0.444 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWC988QB2 | QUEENS BOULEVARD MEDIAN EXTENSIONS INTO CROSSWALKS, QUEENS | Queens | (Pending) | $2.8M | Critical· 89% | Low· 0% | 0.444 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| CK26W02BS | CLOUDBURST - BROWNSVILLE CLOUDBURST HUB | Brooklyn | Design | $39.5M | Critical· 88% | Low· 0% | 0.443 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |