Capital Project Risk · Portfolio as of May 2026

Delay and cost-overrun probabilities for NYC DDC-managed capital projects using public sources plus Checkbook NYC. Concourse research artifact. Not an official DDC risk score or vendor rating. Model outputs are correlational, not causal.

Methodology · Model card · Delay reasons (frozen 2024-01)

Publish health · 7 sources

Model run e1665ab6 · trained 29 days ago · Model card ›

Portfolio KPIs

Scored active DDC projects1,323of 1,665 in May 2026 High delay risk870Delay risk in High or Critical High overrun risk5Overrun risk in High or Critical Budget represented$49.2BSum of latest total budget across scored projects Unscored projects342

Coverage summary

FMS-to-legacy coverage

66.2%

1102 of 1665 projects have stitched legacy history.

FMS-to-Checkbook coverage

62.5%

1041 of 1665 projects link to Checkbook contracts (soft target 50%).

Scoring coverage

79.5%

1323 of 1665 active DDC FMS IDs scored (target 70%).

Ranked portfolio

Borough

Phase

Budget bucket

Delay risk

Overrun risk

Stitch

Scoring

Category

Showing 5 of 5 projects

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Ranking uses the last successfully published model run. Predictions may not reflect the newest source snapshots yet.

FMS ID	Project	Boro	Phase	Budget	Delay risk	Overrun risk	Combined	Top contributor
SEX002275	Reconstruction of Grand Concourse Phase 5, Bronx, HWXP136D	Bronx	Construction	$2.0M	Critical· 93%	High· 70%	0.813	Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate.	›
HWCB26KR	Curb Reconstruction - Brooklyn and Staten Island	Citywide	Construction Procurement	$4.3M	Critical· 82%	High· 57%	0.692	Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate.	›
HWS2024M1	Prior Notice Sidewalks - Manhattan	Manhattan	Construction	$8.6M	Low· 15%	High· 69%	0.423	Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate.	›
GKOH15-DB	GI-DSGN BUILD ROW GI PH 4 OH-15 GRAVESEND BAY CSO TRIB AREA	Brooklyn	(Cancelled)	$929.6K	Low· 19%	High· 61%	0.402	Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate.	›
HWS2025K	Prior Notice Sidewalks - Brooklyn	Brooklyn	Construction Procurement	$15.1M	Low· 0%	High· 62%	0.313	Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate.	›

Rows 1–5 of 5

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