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Delay and cost-overrun probabilities for NYC DDC-managed capital projects using public sources plus Checkbook NYC. Concourse research artifact. Not an official DDC risk score or vendor rating. Model outputs are correlational, not causal.
| FMS ID | Project | Boro | Phase | Budget | Delay risk | Overrun risk | Combined | Top contributor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HWP20MXQC | Non-Standard Ped Ramp Install- Manh,Queens & Bronx -DSGN BLD | Citywide | (Design Built) | $17.1M | Critical· 99% | Low· 2% | 0.506 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| BED-802 | WM Replacement Hamilton Ave Gowanus Connector, BK HWK1048D | Brooklyn | Close-out | $18.3M | Critical· 100% | Low· 1% | 0.506 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HAM17GHSE | MARLBOROUGH HOUSES BSCAH GREENHOUSE DESIGN BUILD | Brooklyn | (Design Built) | $22.8M | Critical· 100% | Low· 1% | 0.506 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SEQNS005 | SEQ - Sewer When & Where Contract in SE Queens | Queens | Pre-Design | $26.6M | Critical· 98% | Low· 3% | 0.505 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| SANDBRIGH | SANDY - NEW BRIGHTON COMFORT STATION RECONSTRUCTION | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $5.4M | Critical· 100% | Low· 1% | 0.505 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| C114ACADY | Construction of a New Training Academy | Citywide | (Pending) | $225.0M | Critical· 99% | Low· 2% | 0.505 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| LBM15GBRF | GERRITSEN BEACH ENVELOPE REHAB | Brooklyn | Close-out | $3.6M | Critical· 99% | Low· 2% | 0.505 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWPLZ016M | Hamilton Place Plaza (Johnny Hartman), MED690 | Manhattan | Design | $12.8M | Critical· 97% | Low· 4% | 0.504 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HH115LFAU | LINDEN FIRE ALARM UPGRADE | Brooklyn | Design | $2.5M | Critical· 96% | Low· 5% | 0.504 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| PO79WNDWS | HWY UNIT 3, 67TH, 76TH, 111TH PCT WINDOW RPLCMNT | Citywide | (Cancelled) | $8.7M | Critical· 100% | Low· 1% | 0.504 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| LBC16MD2F | MIDWOOD 2ND FLOOR RENOVATIONS | Brooklyn | Construction | $9.7M | Critical· 100% | Low· 1% | 0.503 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HL82BUSHX | BUSHWICK HEALTH CENTER - EXTERIOR RENOVATION | Brooklyn | Close-out | $19.0M | Critical· 100% | Low· 1% | 0.503 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HWHARPADM | Harper Street Administration Building Reconstruction DB | Queens | (Design Built) | $143.8M | Critical· 100% | Low· 1% | 0.503 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWQ200578 | SEQ - Foch Boulevard Safety Improvements (SEQ200578) | Queens | (Completed) | $7.9M | Critical· 98% | Low· 3% | 0.503 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HH112FTRF | FT. WASHINGTON ARMORY ROOF REPLACEMENT | Manhattan | Construction | $20.8M | Critical· 100% | Low· 1% | 0.503 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| E16-0005 | DSNY -Manhattan 3 District Garage | Manhattan | (Completed) | $2.0M | Critical· 99% | Low· 2% | 0.503 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PV040HVAC | FTH - Flushing Town Hall HVAC System Replacement | Queens | Construction | $5.8M | Critical· 98% | Low· 3% | 0.503 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HWD105-03 | LIBRARY LANE PROJECT | Bronx | Design | $9.7M | Critical· 98% | Low· 2% | 0.503 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWR00505 | VICTORY BLVD AND MANOR ROAD INTERSECTION IMPROVEMENT | Staten Island | (Construction) | $19.6M | Critical· 99% | Low· 2% | 0.503 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWK20072 | Ave W, Gravesend Neck Rd, and Sheepshead Bay Rd, SEK20072 | Brooklyn | (Pending) | $5.4M | Critical· 91% | Low· 10% | 0.503 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| GKOH15-01 | GI - GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE IN OH-015 GRAVESEND BAY CSO PH 1 | Brooklyn | Construction Procurement | $104.2M | Critical· 94% | Low· 7% | 0.503 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| HWQ1196 | Cloudburst Project - St Albans (SEQ-SACBA) | Queens | Design | $8.8M | Critical· 94% | Low· 7% | 0.502 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| HWMWTCA7E | RECONSTRUCTION OF WORTH ST - HUDSON ST TO EAST BROADWAY | Manhattan | (Completed) | $90.7M | Critical· 100% | Low· 1% | 0.502 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWKDTBK | Park Avenue - Ingersoll Safety Improvements | Brooklyn | Design | $10.7M | Critical· 99% | Low· 1% | 0.502 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| SANDR03 | Jamaica Bay Greenway - Canarsie Pier Connector | Brooklyn | Close-out | $5.6M | Critical· 99% | Low· 1% | 0.502 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| LNCA13HAM | HAMILTON FISH: REHABILITATION | Manhattan | Construction | $19.9M | Critical· 99% | Low· 1% | 0.502 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| LQRDMASON | RIDGEWOOD - MASONRY | Queens | Design | $7.3M | Critical· 97% | Low· 3% | 0.502 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| LQSHRN-23 | South Hollis - Branch Renovation | Queens | (Initiation) | $20.4M | Critical· 83% | Low· 18% | 0.502 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWPR20MKL | Non-Standard Upgrades Ped Ramp - Manhattan & Brooklyn | Citywide | Construction | $20.6M | Critical· 99% | Low· 1% | 0.502 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWPR20MKT | Non-Standard Upgrades Ped Ramp - TA Manhattan & Brooklyn | Citywide | Construction | $19.3M | Critical· 99% | Low· 1% | 0.501 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWPEDSF5 | Multi-Site Pedestrian Safety Phase 5 | Brooklyn | Close-out | $28.5M | Critical· 100% | Low· 0% | 0.501 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| LQLI-ROOF | LONG ISLAND CITY: New Roof | Queens | (Initiation) | $4.0M | Critical· 93% | Low· 7% | 0.501 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HH112BEES | BELLEVUE - ELECT SVC UPGRADE | Manhattan | (Completed) | $27.4M | Critical· 99% | Low· 1% | 0.501 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HL82BRKLN | Brooklyn Animal Care Center Upgrade | Brooklyn | Construction | $56.9M | Critical· 100% | Low· 0% | 0.501 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HAM20BVBG | VAN DYKE BOXING GYM | Brooklyn | Close-out | $11.0M | Critical· 100% | Low· 0% | 0.501 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| SEK002383 | Combined SE installation & WM replacement in Dean Street | Brooklyn | Construction | $27.7M | Critical· 96% | Low· 4% | 0.501 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HWR00508 | AMBOY ROAD IMPROVEMENTS AT ELTINGVILLE CORRIDOR | Staten Island | Design | $23.7M | Critical· 99% | Low· 2% | 0.501 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| LNCA14MBG | HVAC and Related Work | Manhattan | Construction | $4.0M | Critical· 99% | Low· 1% | 0.501 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWQSE877 | Woodhaven SBS - Metropolitan Ave SE877 | Queens | Design | $62.1M | Critical· 96% | Low· 5% | 0.501 | The project has already been in a single phase longer than most peer projects at the same phase. |
| LNEA14VNT | HVAC Replacement | Bronx | Construction | $5.9M | Critical· 98% | Low· 2% | 0.501 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWPEDSF4 | Multi-Site Pedestrian Safety | Brooklyn | Construction | $25.1M | Critical· 100% | Low· 0% | 0.501 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HWR00512 | Richmond Valley Road | Staten Island | Design | $13.0M | Critical· 99% | Low· 1% | 0.501 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| SE-842B | SEQ - Storm & Sanitary Sewers & WM Work in 224th Street | Queens | (On-Hold) | $57.4M | Critical· 93% | Low· 7% | 0.501 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| BED-782A | Reconst of water main & comb sewer,Tillary st PH2 HWK639WA | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $14.0M | Critical· 93% | Low· 7% | 0.500 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| SEQPGRD1 | Southeast Queens Priority Grids -- Group 1 (DOTSEQ01) | Queens | Construction | $34.9M | Critical· 98% | Low· 2% | 0.500 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HAM18MHCC | Mariner's Harbor Community Center | Staten Island | Close-out | $8.7M | Critical· 97% | Low· 3% | 0.500 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWPR19MC1 | Complex Upgrades Ped Ramps - Manhattan | Manhattan | Construction | $28.6M | Critical· 99% | Low· 1% | 0.500 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWMME43ST | 43rd Street Shared Street, MED-670 | Manhattan | Design | $20.0M | Critical· 95% | Low· 5% | 0.500 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| LNCA10RIS | ROOSEVELT ISLAND - NEW BRANCH LIBRARY | Manhattan | (Pending) | $9.4M | Critical· 99% | Low· 1% | 0.500 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HR25BRCS | Brownsville Community Center DESIGN BUILD | Brooklyn | (Design Built) | $131.8M | Critical· 100% | Low· 0% | 0.500 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |