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Delay and cost-overrun probabilities for NYC DDC-managed capital projects using public sources plus Checkbook NYC. Concourse research artifact. Not an official DDC risk score or vendor rating. Model outputs are correlational, not causal.
| FMS ID | Project | Boro | Phase | Budget | Delay risk | Overrun risk | Combined | Top contributor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HBMA24662 | W 128TH ST PED BRIDGE BIN:2246620 | Manhattan | Construction Procurement | $22.9M | Critical· 93% | Low· 16% | 0.545 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWD007K03 | Park Avenue Ped Safety Improvement at the Crossover,BED-830 | Brooklyn | Construction Procurement | $18.6M | Critical· 100% | Low· 9% | 0.545 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HWP21MXQC | Non-Standard Installs - Manhattan, Bronx, Queens | Citywide | Design | $9.9M | Critical· 95% | Low· 14% | 0.544 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWQ787B3 | Sutter Ave, Etc - Phase V (B3) | Queens | (On-hold) | $1.8M | Critical· 98% | Low· 10% | 0.544 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HH112PJFC | PAMOJA HOUSE - FACADE REHABILITATION/RESTORATION | Brooklyn | Construction Procurement | $35.4M | Critical· 99% | Low· 10% | 0.544 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HWP23MQC | Non-Standard Ped Ramps - Manhattan and Queens | Citywide | Design | $17.8M | Critical· 95% | Low· 14% | 0.543 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWP23XC | Non-Standard Ped Ramps - Bronx | Bronx | Design | $17.3M | Critical· 89% | Low· 19% | 0.542 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PW316EL | 280 BROADWAY - VAULT, ELECTRICAL AND FIRE ALARM UPGRADE | Manhattan | Design | $57.5M | Critical· 94% | Low· 14% | 0.540 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| LBP21WIBR | WASHINGTON IRVING RENOVATION | Brooklyn | Construction Procurement | $14.3M | Critical· 87% | Low· 21% | 0.540 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HED-562 | New 46" Trunk Water Main in E.233rd St. Bronx | Bronx | Construction | $59.4M | Critical· 92% | Low· 16% | 0.539 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HWBUSPAD7 | Bus Pads | Citywide | (Initiation) | $4.9M | Critical· 94% | Low· 13% | 0.538 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWCSCH98 | East 98th Street School Safety Improvements | Brooklyn | (Pending) | $56.5M | Critical· 99% | Low· 9% | 0.538 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| LNXA20WKF | Wakefield - Infrastructure and ADA Upgrades | Bronx | Construction Procurement | $4.7M | Critical· 92% | Low· 15% | 0.537 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HH115SNEC | SENECA HOUSES - ELECTRICAL AND KITCHEN UPGRADE | Bronx | (Cancelled) | $2.9M | Critical· 87% | Low· 20% | 0.536 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| LBP18LDIN | LEONARD INFRASTRUCTURE UPGRADE | Brooklyn | Design | $7.0M | Critical· 97% | Low· 10% | 0.535 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SEK002376 | COMB SWR REPLCMNT & WM WORK IN PRESIDENT ST | Brooklyn | Close-out | $13.6M | Critical· 99% | Low· 8% | 0.535 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| SANDR01 | Hylan Blvd Streetscape Improvements (MIBBNC05) | Staten Island | (Completed) | $7.6M | Critical· 100% | Low· 7% | 0.535 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| HWP23MC1 | Non-Standard Ped Ramps - Manhattan | Manhattan | Design | $17.3M | High· 77% | Low· 30% | 0.534 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PV279ACON | NYCC - NY City Center Chiller Replacement | Manhattan | Design | $5.8M | Critical· 99% | Low· 8% | 0.534 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| SANDSLIP | 100 OLD SLIP RESTORATION & SYSTEMS REPLACEMENT | Manhattan | (Design) | $5.2M | Critical· 99% | Low· 7% | 0.534 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| CO293LL11 | 851 GRAND CONCOURSE - FACADE RECONSTRUCTION | Bronx | Construction | $83.9M | Critical· 98% | Low· 9% | 0.533 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWPR21KRC | FY23 Non-Standard Pedestrian Ramp Upgrades | Citywide | Design | $10.0M | Critical· 98% | Low· 8% | 0.533 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| LQCA19WSD | WOODSIDE: Branch Renovation | Queens | (Pre-Design) | $14.9M | Critical· 86% | Low· 21% | 0.532 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PWCOMPDAT | Comptroller's Office Data Center Replacement at 1 Centre St. | Citywide | (Pending) | $902.4K | Critical· 99% | Low· 7% | 0.532 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWP22KRC | FY24 Non-Standard Pedestrian Ramp Installs - Brooklyn & SI | Citywide | Design | $18.7M | Critical· 95% | Low· 11% | 0.532 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWM100SNC | 79TH STREET SBS, MED673 | Manhattan | Design | $51.0M | Critical· 100% | Low· 7% | 0.531 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| PV143INFR | EKC - Elaine Kaufman Center - Infrastructure Phase One | Manhattan | Construction Procurement | $4.1M | Critical· 97% | Low· 9% | 0.530 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWPR24KQ | Simple Upgrades Ped Ramps- Brooklyn & Queens | Citywide | Construction | $22.2M | Critical· 89% | Low· 17% | 0.530 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| PW77198CT | 198 E 161 ST.- COOLING TOWER REPLACEMENT | Bronx | Construction Procurement | $11.2M | Critical· 100% | Low· 6% | 0.530 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWP23QC1 | Non-Standard Ped Ramps - Queens | Queens | Design | $19.4M | Critical· 95% | Low· 11% | 0.529 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWRF05R | Dubois Yard Roof | Staten Island | Construction Procurement | $16.5M | Critical· 100% | Low· 6% | 0.529 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWK639WA | RECON: TILLARY STREET PHASE 2, BED-782A | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $45.5M | Critical· 100% | Low· 6% | 0.528 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| HR25FACA4 | FACADE RESTORATION 360 NEW JERSEY AVE BKLYN NY | Citywide | Construction Procurement | $16.9M | Critical· 98% | Low· 7% | 0.528 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HH115DSFA | DEAN STREET FIRE SAFETY | Brooklyn | Construction | $5.1M | Critical· 98% | Low· 7% | 0.526 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| PV034RR77 | AMNH - Slate Roof & HVAC | Manhattan | (Construction) | $20.9M | Critical· 92% | Low· 14% | 0.525 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| CO304REHB | 60 CENTRE ST. - RECONSTRUCTION | Manhattan | Design | $67.8M | Critical· 97% | Low· 8% | 0.524 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SETVDDC18 | Cleaning and Televising of Sewers by DDC | Citywide | Construction Procurement | $4.1M | High· 78% | Low· 27% | 0.523 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| LQD122RO2 | ROCHDALE VILLAGE - HVAC & Controls | Queens | Construction | $3.8M | Critical· 97% | Low· 7% | 0.522 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HWPR20MQC | Non-Standard Upgrades Ped Ramp - Manhattan & Queens | Citywide | Construction | $19.2M | Critical· 99% | Low· 5% | 0.522 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWX402 | Bruner and Ely | Bronx | Construction | $18.6M | Critical· 97% | Low· 7% | 0.521 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWPR21XC | FY23 Non-Standard Pedestrian Ramp Upgrades | Citywide | Design | $10.0M | High· 79% | Low· 25% | 0.521 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PU272BLR | 45 Monroe PL - Boiler plant upgrade | Brooklyn | (Pending) | $7.4M | High· 79% | Low· 25% | 0.520 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PV001SELM | LAH - Louis Armstrong House - Administration Facility | Queens | Construction | $4.4M | Critical· 98% | Low· 6% | 0.519 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HWCSCHPQN | SAFE ROUTES TO SCHOOLS- QUEENS | Queens | Construction Procurement | $33.3M | Critical· 98% | Low· 6% | 0.518 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| LBM14BWRF | BUSHWICK ROOF REPLACEMENT | Brooklyn | Construction | $2.8M | Critical· 97% | Low· 7% | 0.518 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWPR21MQ | Rehabilitation of Standard Ped Ramps - Queens & Manhattan | Citywide | Close-out | $18.6M | Critical· 94% | Low· 9% | 0.517 | Total budget has re-baselined upward across the last three reporting periods. |
| F175EC268 | NEW FIREHOUSE - EC268 | Queens | Construction | $45.5M | Critical· 82% | Low· 22% | 0.517 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| LNCM10WCH | WESTCHESTER SQUARE - Replacement Branch Construction | Bronx | (On-Hold) | $6.1M | Critical· 98% | Low· 5% | 0.516 | Total budget has re-baselined upward across the last three reporting periods. |
| LBM18EPOH | Eastern Parkway Overhaul | Brooklyn | Construction | $37.7M | Critical· 99% | Low· 4% | 0.516 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| PW77207RF | 1932 ARTHUR AVE ENVELOPE STABILIZATION | Bronx | Design | $60.2M | Critical· 84% | Low· 20% | 0.516 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |