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Delay and cost-overrun probabilities for NYC DDC-managed capital projects using public sources plus Checkbook NYC. Concourse research artifact. Not an official DDC risk score or vendor rating. Model outputs are correlational, not causal.
| FMS ID | Project | Boro | Phase | Budget | Delay risk | Overrun risk | Combined | Top contributor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HWCSCH3B3 | SAFE ROUTES TO SCHOOLS-94 SCHOOLS | Citywide | (Completed) | $4.5M | Critical· 93% | Low· 0% | 0.465 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| CO296RF | 125-01 QUEENS BLVD.- ROOF | Queens | Construction Procurement | $39.1M | Critical· 86% | Low· 7% | 0.465 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PVDTA-PH2 | DTA - Downtown Art Bldg Renovation Phase 2 (Upper Floors) | Manhattan | Construction | $3.6M | Critical· 91% | Low· 2% | 0.465 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWM1048 | Manhattan Waterfront Greenway - Inwood 10th Ave | Manhattan | (Pending) | $159.2M | Critical· 92% | Low· 1% | 0.465 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| BXELEVFAR | 1250 E229th Street Elevator and Fire Alarm Replacement | Bronx | (Pre-Design) | $6.1M | Critical· 92% | Low· 1% | 0.464 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| LNCA13MLB | MUHLENBERG: Elevator | Manhattan | Construction | $1.0M | Critical· 93% | Low· 0% | 0.464 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWS2021XM | PRIOR NOTICE SIDEWALK - BRONX & MANHATTAN | Citywide | Close-out | $5.1M | Critical· 86% | Low· 7% | 0.464 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| HWR1160 | RE- ALIGN ROCKLAND AVE AT MANOR RD/MEISNER AVE, SE-740B | Staten Island | (Design) | $22.0M | Critical· 93% | Low· 0% | 0.464 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| BED-830 | Rplment WM Park Ave btw Classon Ave & Ryerson (HWD007K03) | Brooklyn | Construction Procurement | $2.6M | Critical· 86% | Low· 7% | 0.464 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| QED-1044 | Replacement of Water Mains in Beach 108th Street (SANDR04) | Queens | (Completed) | $7.3M | Critical· 89% | Low· 4% | 0.463 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWXS1011 | Reconstruction of the E 169th Street Step Street | Bronx | Design | $25.3M | Critical· 92% | Low· 1% | 0.463 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| BED-806 | Water Main work in Brooklyn Waterfront Greenway, HWK1048E | Brooklyn | Design | $6.6M | Critical· 92% | Low· 1% | 0.463 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| GQTI03-23 | GI - GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE IN TI-003 & TI-023 EAST RIVER CSO | Queens | Construction | $22.9M | Critical· 92% | Low· 0% | 0.463 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SE-811 | STORM & SAN SWR, N.B. WHITESTONE EXPWY SERV RD PHASE 3 | Queens | Construction | $74.7M | Critical· 92% | Low· 0% | 0.463 | Borough-specific historical patterns contribute to this project's estimated risk. |
| HWPR24KR | Simple Upgrades Ped Ramps- Brooklyn and Staten Island | Citywide | Construction | $24.3M | Critical· 83% | Low· 10% | 0.463 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWX410 | Harding Park Area Reconstruction | Bronx | (Pending) | $90.6M | Critical· 88% | Low· 5% | 0.462 | Budget has held close to its original value across the project's public history. |
| HWS2020Q2 | Prior Notice Sidewalks- Queens | Queens | Close-out | $7.4M | Critical· 91% | Low· 1% | 0.462 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| CO290BCHJ | 265 E161 St.- BCHJ-Post Construction Work | Bronx | (Completed) | $46.4M | Critical· 92% | Low· 0% | 0.462 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HH112FBFS | FANNIE BARNES FIRE SAFETY | Brooklyn | Construction | $6.3M | Critical· 89% | Low· 3% | 0.462 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| SEQNS004 | SEQ -SEWER WHEN & WHERE CONTRACT IN S.E. QNS | Queens | (Completed) | $23.7M | Critical· 92% | Low· 1% | 0.462 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| PV022-SKY | MMA - Metropolitan Museum Skylight Replacement for A, B, C W | Manhattan | (Construction) | $37.9M | Critical· 92% | Low· 1% | 0.462 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWMWTCA1D | RECONSTRUCTION OF WASHINGTON STREET - EMERGENCY | Manhattan | (Pending) | $3.1M | Critical· 92% | Low· 1% | 0.462 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HL82CORHC | Corona Health Center-Exterior Facade, Basement and Lobby | Queens | Construction | $16.0M | Critical· 90% | Low· 2% | 0.462 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| WTM4SPRW | Perform Wetland Mitigation work in Four Sparrow Marsh, BKLYN | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $7.6M | Critical· 89% | Low· 3% | 0.461 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| SE-592 | STORM SEWERS WHITESTONE EXPWY - PHASE I | Queens | (Pending) | $10.1M | Critical· 92% | Low· 0% | 0.460 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| PV235EDUC | BMA - Brooklyn Museum - Education Space | Brooklyn | (Pass-Through Fund) | $6.2M | Critical· 92% | Low· 0% | 0.460 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| BB05-02-A | GI - Cons of ROW Bioswales & Stormwwater GS in BB-005, Ph 2 | Queens | (Completed) | $17.4M | Critical· 89% | Low· 3% | 0.460 | This project has been re-baselined multiple times across its public snapshots, which historically correlates with additional slippage. |
| PO205-PA | CONSTRUCTION OF A NEW POLICE ACADEMY/TRAINING FACILITY | Citywide | (Completed) | $869.2M | Critical· 92% | Low· 0% | 0.460 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| PW335BS16 | BULK SAMPLING CONTRACT 15 | Manhattan | (Pending) | $1.0M | Critical· 90% | Low· 2% | 0.460 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HW2CR12C | CITYWIDE MILLING - QUEENS | Queens | (Completed) | $4.2M | Critical· 92% | Low· 0% | 0.460 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| E16-0003 | DCAS - Manhattan Civil Court | Manhattan | Construction | $7.4M | Critical· 91% | Low· 1% | 0.459 | Borough-specific historical patterns contribute to this project's estimated risk. |
| LNXA11WFM | WEST FARMS - New Front Entry | Bronx | Close-out | $1.8M | Critical· 91% | Low· 1% | 0.459 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| BED-805 | New Storm & San Swrs & WM-Gateway Estates, Phase E (HD-161E) | Brooklyn | Construction | $15.9M | Critical· 92% | Low· 0% | 0.459 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| MED-670 | Replacement of distriibution WM in 43rd Street, HWMME43ST | Manhattan | Design | $3.3M | Critical· 83% | Low· 9% | 0.459 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| LQQ122-BL | Masonry Repairs - Bellerose | Queens | (Pending) | $1.0M | Critical· 92% | Low· 0% | 0.459 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWS2025M | Prior Notice Sidewalks - Manhattan | Manhattan | Construction Procurement | $7.1M | High· 77% | Low· 14% | 0.459 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| SE-885 | SEQ - 150th St Spine: Phase I, Outlet at Bergen Basin | Queens | Design | $153.6M | Critical· 90% | Low· 1% | 0.459 | Total budget has re-baselined upward across the last three reporting periods. |
| MIBBNC04B | Storm and sanitary sewer installation | Staten Island | Design | $53.1M | Critical· 90% | Low· 2% | 0.459 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| SEK20067 | High level storm sewer Gowanus Canal Area. Phase 2. | Brooklyn | Close-out | $43.2M | Critical· 91% | Low· 1% | 0.458 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| MED685 | Dist & Trunk Mains on Morningside Ave & 125 St, MN | Manhattan | Design | $13.2M | Critical· 81% | Low· 10% | 0.457 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PV362STA2 | St. Ann's Warehouse:Tobacco Warehouse renovation-Ext Ltg | Brooklyn | Construction | $580.5K | Critical· 91% | Low· 0% | 0.457 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| CONISPH3A | Storm and San Sew,Trunk & Distrib Water Main, Coney Isl Ph3A | Brooklyn | Close-out | $64.2M | Critical· 90% | Low· 1% | 0.457 | Cumulative budget growth since the earliest snapshot is well above typical peer projects. |
| SEQ200398 | STORM SEWER IN 99AV - FRANCIS LEWIS BLVD AND 211 PL | Queens | (Completed) | $1.5M | Critical· 91% | Low· 0% | 0.457 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| P-5PNYC06 | PlaNYC-Ocean Breeze Athletic Fac-Building Fit-Out R149-108M | Staten Island | (Completed) | $112.3M | Critical· 91% | Low· 0% | 0.457 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWK100BUS | Utica Ave Bus Priority | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $25.3M | Critical· 91% | Low· 0% | 0.457 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HD-161D | GATEWAY ESTATE - PHASE D (SEK002354/SEK20057/HIFHPD) | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $14.3M | Critical· 91% | Low· 0% | 0.457 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SER200241 | STRM & SWR IN BLOOMINGTON RD B/T AUTHUR KILL RD & PITNEY AVE | Staten Island | (Completed) | $18.2M | Critical· 91% | Low· 0% | 0.456 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SEQ200548 | STORM SEWER IN BEACH 8TH STREET | Queens | (Completed) | $2.2M | Critical· 91% | Low· 0% | 0.456 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SER200189 | STORM SEWERS IN LEMON CREEK WATERSHED AREA | Staten Island | (Pending) | $2.4M | Critical· 91% | Low· 0% | 0.455 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| LNCA11BEL | BELMONT - Upper and Lower Roof | Bronx | (Completed) | $2.2M | Critical· 91% | Low· 0% | 0.455 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |