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Delay and cost-overrun probabilities for NYC DDC-managed capital projects using public sources plus Checkbook NYC. Concourse research artifact. Not an official DDC risk score or vendor rating. Model outputs are correlational, not causal.
| FMS ID | Project | Boro | Phase | Budget | Delay risk | Overrun risk | Combined | Top contributor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEX002272 | Combined SE Replacement in Davidson Avenue. Bronx (HWXS711) | Bronx | Construction Procurement | $162.0K | Moderate· 31% | Low· 20% | 0.258 | Total budget has re-baselined upward across the last three reporting periods. |
| GE-346 | EMERGENCY RECONSTRUCTION OF WATER MAINS | Citywide | (Pending) | $9.8M | Moderate· 51% | Low· 0% | 0.257 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| GE-342 | EMERGENCY RECONSTRUCTION OF WATER MAINS | Citywide | (Pending) | $8.6M | Moderate· 51% | Low· 0% | 0.257 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SER002224 | MILL POND | Staten Island | (Pending) | $1.8M | Moderate· 51% | Low· 0% | 0.256 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SER200165 | STORM SEWERS IN HYLAN BLVD - NMALONE AV & ADELAIDE AV | Staten Island | (Pending) | $1.2M | Moderate· 51% | Low· 0% | 0.256 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| RED-392 | WM rplcmt in Bay St between Slosson Ter & Minthorne St SI | Staten Island | (Pending) | $9.0M | Moderate· 48% | Low· 2% | 0.253 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SEQ002496 | COMB SEWERS IN BROADWAY & JUSTICE AV, QNS | Queens | (Pending) | $2.8M | Moderate· 50% | Low· 0% | 0.252 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| BED-792 | Recon wm & Comb swr Myrtle Ave b/t hall st & emerson Pl, Bk | Brooklyn | (Completed) | $2.2M | Moderate· 49% | Low· 1% | 0.250 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| SE-775 | SAN & STM SEWERS IN BLOONINGDALE AV-AMBOY RD & RICHMOND PKWY | Staten Island | (Pending) | $18.3M | Moderate· 50% | Low· 0% | 0.248 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWP24XC | Non-Standard Ped Ramps - Bronx | Bronx | Design | $19.6M | Moderate· 45% | Low· 4% | 0.248 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| HWP15XMCL | Simple, Complex & Landmark Ped Ramps - Bronx and Manhattan | Citywide | Close-out | $10.7M | Moderate· 48% | Low· 1% | 0.248 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWK1166 | RECONST. OF 86th ST. FROM SHORE RD TO GATLING PL. BROOKLYN | Brooklyn | (Pending) | $13.0M | Moderate· 49% | Low· 0% | 0.247 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| CROSSBOIL | CROSSROADS BOILER REPLACEMENT | Brooklyn | (Pending) | $1.9M | Moderate· 47% | Low· 2% | 0.247 | Budget has held close to its original value across the project's public history. |
| HWCRWALLC | CONSTRUCTION REQUIREMENT CONTRACT-RETAINING WALLS (CITYWIDE) | Citywide | (Completed) | $3.5M | Moderate· 46% | Low· 3% | 0.245 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| NDF-IW10A | NDF - Improve Prioroity intersections along 10th Av, HWM1048 | Manhattan | (Pending) | $26.5M | Moderate· 39% | Low· 10% | 0.244 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWQ1201 | ASTORIA BLVD SAFETY IMPROVEMENTS | Queens | Design | $16.0M | Moderate· 46% | Low· 2% | 0.242 | Spend to date is a large share of total budget relative to progress on the project's milestones. |
| HWPR25KQ | Simple Upgrades Ped Ramps- Brooklyn & Queens | Citywide | Construction Procurement | $26.9M | Low· 19% | Low· 29% | 0.242 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| SE849 | Dist WM SE Rplmt in Southeast Clason Point, BX | Bronx | Pre-Design | $37.7M | Moderate· 44% | Low· 4% | 0.241 | Budget has held close to its original value across the project's public history. |
| SER002334 | NDF - Rplcmt 6" sanitary sewers & distribution wtr mains SI | Staten Island | (Initiation) | $37.7M | Moderate· 42% | Low· 6% | 0.241 | Budget has held close to its original value across the project's public history. |
| SEQ002532 | SANITARY SEWERS IN SMITH ST - 120 AV TO BAISLEY BLVD | Queens | (Pending) | $3.0M | Moderate· 48% | Low· 0% | 0.240 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SEK201BN1 | EMERGENCY Recon. Existing Collapsed Vit Clay Pipe Sewers | Brooklyn | (Pending) | $4.1M | Moderate· 48% | Low· 0% | 0.240 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SER002199 | SAN SEWERS IN COLUMBIA AV, SI | Staten Island | (Pending) | $1.8M | Moderate· 48% | Low· 0% | 0.239 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SEQ002502 | SEWER REPLACEMENT, QNS | Queens | (Pending) | $2.8M | Moderate· 48% | Low· 0% | 0.239 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| HWS2024X1 | Prior Notice Sidewalks - Bronx | Bronx | Construction | $9.3M | Low· 13% | Moderate· 34% | 0.239 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| QED-968 | SHAFT 19B IN GRAND AV - PAGE PL TO 54 ST | Queens | (Pending) | $9.0M | Moderate· 47% | Low· 0% | 0.237 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SANDY4-11 | SANDY- R/C of Rockaway Garage DB | Queens | (Design Built) | $876.0K | Moderate· 47% | Low· 0% | 0.236 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| EC-SER25 | Reconstruction of Existing Sewers, Staten Island | Staten Island | (Completed) | $12.8M | Moderate· 40% | Low· 7% | 0.235 | Budget has held close to its original value across the project's public history. |
| SEN002183 | Install New Comb. SE at 12 Av btw W134 & 138 St MN, HWM12AVE | Manhattan | Construction Procurement | $14.2M | Moderate· 42% | Low· 5% | 0.234 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| PV490-Q3 | SHCC - Snug Harbor Cult. Ctr. Music Hall, Dressing Rooms | Staten Island | Construction | $23.7M | Moderate· 46% | Low· 0% | 0.231 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| CO283WT | 100 CENTRE STREET - WATER TANK | Manhattan | Close-out | $6.8M | Moderate· 36% | Low· 10% | 0.229 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| BED829 | Dts WM Rplmt in 4th Av fr Atlantic av to 64th ST-BK HWK1669B | Brooklyn | Design | $69.4M | Moderate· 30% | Low· 15% | 0.228 | Budget has held close to its original value across the project's public history. |
| LBK22BRHC | Bay Ridge - Heating & Cooling Upgrade | Brooklyn | Design | $7.2M | Moderate· 43% | Low· 2% | 0.228 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| HWQ1205 | Belt Parkway Guardrail at Sunrise Highway | Queens | Design | $5.2M | Moderate· 30% | Low· 15% | 0.227 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| PV176CES2 | WCS - Bronx Zoo - Switch Gear Phase 2 | Bronx | (Initiation) | $23.4M | Low· 19% | Low· 27% | 0.226 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| EC-LC25KR | Emergency Sewer Lining Contract, Brooklyn and Staten Island | Citywide | (Cancelled) | $0 | Moderate· 35% | Low· 11% | 0.226 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| HWQ230G | RECON: OF READS LANE: | Queens | (Pending) | $6.3M | Moderate· 45% | Low· 0% | 0.225 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| PV205CHIL | NYBG - Children's Adventure Garden Renovations | Bronx | (Pending) | $4.1M | Moderate· 36% | Low· 9% | 0.224 | Budget has held close to its original value across the project's public history. |
| SEQ200472 | STORM SEWERS IN 125 STREET | Queens | (Pending) | $1.8M | Moderate· 44% | Low· 0% | 0.222 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SEQ002413 | RECON OF SANITARY SEWER, COLLIER AV(B 25 ST - BRIAR PL) | Queens | (Pending) | $959.4K | Moderate· 44% | Low· 0% | 0.221 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SEQ002495 | RELINING OF SEWERS #3, QN | Queens | (Pending) | $394.7K | Moderate· 44% | Low· 0% | 0.221 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SEQ200441 | STORM SEWERS IN 38TH DRIVE AREA | Queens | (Pending) | $300.1K | Moderate· 44% | Low· 0% | 0.221 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SEQ200370 | STORM SEWERS IN SHAFT 19B IN GRAND AV - PAGE PL TO 54 ST | Queens | (Pending) | $26.1K | Moderate· 44% | Low· 0% | 0.221 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| LQSJ-INT | SOUTH JAMAICA: Branch Renovation | Queens | (Initiation) | $19.3M | Moderate· 41% | Low· 3% | 0.221 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| HWK900 | Brownsville Pedestrian Safety Improvements | Brooklyn | Design | $14.7M | Low· 22% | Low· 22% | 0.219 | Budget has held close to its original value across the project's public history. |
| SER00201W | — | — | Construction Procurement | $4.7M | Moderate· 43% | Low· 0% | 0.219 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| QED-1039 | Distribution Water Main Extensions/Replacements, Queens | Queens | (Pending) | $9.9M | Moderate· 43% | Low· 0% | 0.218 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SEK002384 | Combined SE rplcmt & dist WM Van Sinderen Av BK NDF-IBZ | Brooklyn | Construction Procurement | $28.4M | Moderate· 31% | Low· 13% | 0.217 | Contractor identity is a correlational (not causal) factor: peer projects with similar contract profiles contribute to the estimate. |
| SER20049 | STORM SEWERS IN WEED AV - EBBITTS ST AND TYSEN LA | Staten Island | (Pending) | $240.4K | Moderate· 42% | Low· 0% | 0.213 | Spend to date is a small share of total budget, suggesting the project has not yet crossed a material spending threshold. |
| SER200261 | Storm sewer in Roma Ave bet Tysens Lane & Ebbits Street | Staten Island | (Design) | $2.8M | Moderate· 42% | Low· 1% | 0.212 | Historical outcomes for projects in this ten-year-plan category contribute to the estimate. |
| ACEDCA215 | DCLA- BCM HVAC UPGRADES | Brooklyn | Construction Procurement | $19.9M | Low· 28% | Low· 14% | 0.212 | Budget has held close to its original value across the project's public history. |